måndag 17 september 2012


Citat från dagens Hussman. Man kan lugnt säga att jag känner med honom.

Nu signalerar marknaden sina värsta utsikter för kommande 2 veckor till 18 månader på åtminstone 100 år enligt Hussmans modeller.

As of Friday, our estimates of prospective return/risk [blended 2 weeks to 18 months] for the S&P 500 have dropped to the single lowest point we’ve observed in a century of data.

…we have a very mature market advance, at a high Shiller P/E, atop nearly every upper Bollinger band (two standard deviations above the 20-period average at daily, weekly, and monthly resolutions), in an environment of lopsided bullishness.

We continue to view QE as being of no real economic benefit

As I noted in July, the probable upside benefit to QE3 was likely to be limited to the upper Bollinger band of the S&P 500 on weekly and monthly resolutions. And here we are.

Last week, we observed a syndrome of evidence that matches only a handful of market extremes in history, including August-December 1972, August 1987, April-July 1998, July 1999, and March 2000, and April-July 2007.

It has certainly been frustrating to remain defensive in a market that has scaled higher as our measures of market conditions have deteriorated from the most negative 2% of historical instances in early-March, to the most negative 0.5% of instances in recent weeks, to the most negative single instance we can identify.

Undoubtedly, the most favorable outcome would entail a market loss deeply in excess of 20% followed by an improvement in market internals – which is the typical way that a market cycle is completed. That would allow a good deal of latitude for the market to advance without shifting back to an overvalued, overbought, overbullish condition or some other hostile syndrome. We certainly don’t need stocks to become undervalued in order to establish a constructive position

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