torsdag 27 september 2012

Société Générales negativa kommentar

Länk till Albert Edwards kommentar om aktiemarknaden.

några utdrag:

Regular readers will know that in the main, my market timing is unerringly inaccurate, normally months if not years too early. But for those who might write off this move down to 30% as the yet more rantings of a lunatic, the last time I reduced my equity weighting to 30% was 8 May 2008 when the S&P was stlll standing at 1400. [innan index föll till 666]

Först deflation, sedan inflation:

Conversely I expect US inflation expectations as measured by the bond market to decline and fall into line with 5-year consumer expectations as measured in the Michigan Survey

For I have long held to the view that the primary determinant of US implied inflation expectations is the economic cycle. The recent divergence is highly unusual. The last time this occurred was…… wait for it…… the first quarter of 2008, just before we last reduced our equity weighting to 30%! Bath time anyone?

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