måndag 24 september 2012

Och, ja, Hussman håller i sin negativa stans

Han tillför egentligen inget nytt i veckans brev, men påpekar faran med inflation för vinster och aktier:

One would like to believe that stock market investors are at least no worse off. After all, inflation would have a tendency to raise future revenues.

This is generally true, but historically, inflation has been very hostile to stock prices – particularly during the transition from lower to higher inflation rates – because inflation also raises wages and interest costs, and produces significantly more conservative valuations.

Moreover, assuming that government deficits and private savings do not remain in their dismal state indefinitely, we are likely to observe significantly narrower profit margins in the future, compared with present margins, which are about 70% above historical norms...

Och, ja, jag håller också kvar vid max kort position. Väntar, väntar, väntar.

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