måndag 19 november 2012

Hussman ser lite lättnad

1. Hussman ser fortfarande risk/reward som den sämsta procenten på 100 år
2. Men den omedelbara nedsidan har minskat något efter den senaste tidens nedgång
3. Han tror inte att han kommer ändra fondens placeringar nämnvärt, men marknaden är inte lika overbullish och overbought längre

Från dagens Hussman
In recent months, our estimates of prospective return/risk in the stock market have moved to the lowest 1% of historical data. In September, and again last week, those estimates dropped to the worst two observations in a century of historical data. Importantly, our concerns about global recession, unrestructured debt, European banking strains, and other issues are not at all responsible for those negative estimates.

While I don’t expect a significant change in our overall investment stance in the absence of a larger adjustment in market valuations, the level of advisory bullishness has come down, and on our measures, stocks are not as overbought on an intermediate-term basis than they were a few weeks ago. As a result, some firming in market internals could move us to a slightly less defensive stance...

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