måndag 29 oktober 2012

Hussman ser mindre nedsida, men är inte mer positiv

Hussmans modeller pekar nu på 30% nedsida (årstakt) mot tidigare -50%, men konstaterar att den skillnaden inte betyder något för placeringsstrategin.

Hussman tar också upp den oroväckande utvecklingen i Japan där handelsunderskott, budgetunderskott, lågt privat sparande, ekonomisk kontraktion och hög skuld sammantaget medför ökad risk för destabilisering. Dispyten mellan Japan och Kina förvärrar situationen bla pga effekterna på export/import och tillväxt.

Tänk om det blir Japan som till slut knäcker den globala ekonomin... "a bug in search of a windshield"

On the subject of deficits, the situation in Japan seems increasingly strained. The gross debt/GDP ratio in Japan is now about 225%, and net debt (which excludes debt held by the government itself for monetary, pension and other reasons) is about 130%.

During the entire post-war period, Japan has enjoyed a significant trade surplus, which has allowed it to run growing government deficits. Meanwhile, household savings have declined from nearly 15% in the 1990’s to next-to-nothing today.

Needless to say, that large and persistent trade surplus has enabled economic dynamics that normally would not be sustainable.

But over the past year, Japan has fallen into a trade deficit, which has deepened recently due in part to tensions with China. We are now observing an ominous combination of a significant trade deficit, a deep government deficit, non-existent household savings, a steep debt/GDP ratio, and a contraction in both manufacturing and service sectors according to the latest purchasing manager’s surveys out of Japan. While Europe remains our primary source of concern, I am concerned that both China and Japan are likely to have a more destabilizing impact than is widely assumed.

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