måndag 6 augusti 2012

Dagens Hussman, lika negativ som tidigare

Från dagens Hussman (som fortfarande identifierar dagens läge som tillhörande de dyraste 0,6% av alla mätpunkter (under ca 100 år har jag för mig).

1) Angående den starka payrollrapporten i fredags: "Keep in mind, as we’ve noted regularly over the years, that employment is a lagging economic indicator."

Ledande data är klart negativa och även om marknaden i stort blandar ihop korten så har Hussman statistiken på sin sida: "The 'stream of anecdotes' school of economic analysis may treat every economic report as having equal weight in determining the course of the economy, but the actual sequence is generally as follows: falling consumption growth and new orders -> falling production -> falling employment.

The latest employment report appears to be little more than the wagging tail of an already sick puppy, and the tail is not likely to wag that dog to health."

Hussman fortsätter med att påpeka att t.o.m. arbetstalen pekar på recession: "Even focusing on the bright spot [in payrolls], which is the establishment survey figure, one immediate fact to note is that year-over-year growth in non-farm payrolls fell below 1.4% back in April, following a brief excursion above that level, and has remained weak since then. As the chart below indicates, a decline in year-over-year payroll employment growth below 1.4% has occurred just before, or already into, each of the past 10 recessions, with no false signals."

Han understryker att man inte ska titta på en variabel enskilt (vilket marknaden ofta gör): "As usual, we’re skeptical of drawing inferences from a single indicator, and this instance may be different. But given the collapse in new orders and other measures of economic activity across numerous Fed, ISM and global surveys (and a continued decline in the most leading signal that we infer from our unobserved components models), there seems to be little reason for that expectation."

Och tar fram ett exempel på ett brett index för ekonomisk utveckling, utöver de ensembler som Hussman själva sätter ihop: "…the latest JP Morgan global manufacturing report observes that "production and new orders both fell for the second month running in July, with rates of contraction gathering pace"

Och, angående beslutsfattandet I Europa: ”While everyone can be unanimous about their commitment to doing 'everything necessary,' it’s important to recognize that 'everything' means something different to each party

Inga kommentarer: