måndag 4 mars 2013

Dagens guldkorn från Hussman

Ekonomi 101

Sida 11 i dagens 13-sidiga Hussman innehåller det enda man faktiskt behöver läsa idag. Han påpekar, via några enkla (antagandefria) ekvationer att det bara är produktiva investeringar som kan lyfta ett lands välstånd och minska dess underskott.

Attempts to “stimulate” the economy by suppressing savings and increase consumption, or by pursuing “beggar thy neighbor” exchange rate policies are weak options compared to policies that encourage productive investment, research, and development. A nation’s “standard of living” is reflected by the amount of goods and services that its people can consume as a result of their efforts. A nation’s “productivity” is reflected by the amount of goods and services that its people can produce as a result of their efforts. Ultimately, one cannot increase for long without the other. Robust domestic investment provides the foundation for both.

The only sustainable course to a higher standard of living is to encourage productive investment. Policies like those currently pursued by the Federal Reserve attempt to encourage consumption, but do so by distorting savings and investment decisions toward speculative activity rather than productive investment. Unfortunately, the reluctance of consumers to spend is tightly linked to existing mortgage and consumer debt burdens, many of which remain unserviceable and have not been restructured. Attempts to squeeze greater consumption demand from these individuals, without a strategy to increase productive activity and income, is likely to produce continued failure.

Förutom detta finns en del intressanta grafer på hur ökade investeringar kommer före ökad konsumtion (duh!) och hur dagens investeringstrender (snittet för 8 kvartal) börjar peka nedåt och sannolikt leder fallande sysselsättning med ett halvår.

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