fredag 19 augusti 2011

Exanes (BNP Paribas) syn på marknaden: -40%

Far from priced in
The chances of avoiding a recession are fading and with it the probability of the 20%
upside we estimated in such a scenario. A global recession scenario on the other
hand is far from priced in. In a deep (but not extreme) global recession we previously
estimated earnings could drop 35% peak-to-trough, implying a 50% cut to consensus
EPS estimates, a 300bp contraction in EBIT margins and cyclically adjusted PEs derating
to 11.5x.
This would imply downside from current levels of about 40%.

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