måndag 23 augusti 2010

Containertrafiken mattas

Jag fick förresten det här i morse från en dansk analytiker:

This week's CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) index is down by 0.3% w-o-w (week on week) and the SCFI (Shanghai...) index is down by 0.9% w-o-w. This is the second week in a row with a w-o-w decline in the CCFI index whereas the SCFI index has been declining slowly but steadily since early July. Compared with the normal seasonality in the CCFI index, it should start to move sideways by 38 (mid Sep) and then start a gradual sequential w-w decline by week 41 (early/mid Oct). We are now in week 33 and if the trend seen in the past two weeks continues, this will mark the earliest end to the peak season ever, except for 2008 when the global crisis started. Moreover, the decline this week has been more broadly founded as all routes show a w-o-w decline – even on the transpacific which has been holding up quite nicely in the past month or so. Indeed, as we write in this week's issue, capacity on the transpacific is now back to 2008 levels and is up by 26% since January 2010 – this is well ahead of the 16% YTD volume decline seen on the US west coast ports, and may point towards more soft rates going forward. On Asia-Europe we remain fairly confident that it will be an uphill struggle for the carriers to implement already announced surcharges.



Containermarknaden blev plötsligt inte så het längre...

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