ISI och double dip

ISI påpekar i e.m. att man ofta (felaktigt) spår double dip [t.ex. min best guess just nu] under återhämtningsfasen:

Double-Dip Concerns Common in US Recoveries

In 1991, GDP slowed to +1.7% and +1.6% in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of recovery. (The mfg PMI fell from 54.9% to 46.8%.) Growth in the next year of recovery, was +4.3%. In 2002, GDP slowed to +0.1% and +1.6% in the 4th and 5th quarters of recovery. Growth in the next year averaged +4.1%.

And because of revisions, judging the pace of recovery is particularly difficult. For example, GDP in 1Q of 1992 was originally reported to be +2.9% -- now +4.5%. GDP in 2Q was originally reported to be +1.5% -- now +4.3%, and 3Q was +2.7% -- now +4.2%.