tisdag 15 juni 2010

Lite stöd till oss positiva

Merrills (Bank of America) fondförvaltarundersökning:

Global Survey: Summary
a. The June FMS shows investor’ growth expectations in danger of ‘double-dipping’, but

b. risk appetite has stabilized, and
c. equity valuation is the cheapest since March 2009.
Investor sentiment is defensive, but pessimism is not yet extreme enough for a big buy signal on risk assets.
However, such has been the scaling back of growth expectations that a simple absence of negative surprises on macro-data would be positive for equity markets.

European Survey: Summary European growth expectations have fallen back sharply. They are now hovering just above double-dip territory, with the European growth outlook at just +7% - two months ago it was at 62%. Similarly, profit growth expectations have fallen to +17%, from +72% in April. In fact the minority who are expecting a double dip has grown substantially to just over a third of respondents - two months ago that was around 10%.

A lot of bad news is now in the price European equities are seen as the cheapest in 6 years by local fund mangers, while Europe is also seen as the cheapest region by a clear majority of global investors.

On sectors Only minor changes this month; investors are modestly putting some money back into cyclicals at the expense of financials, but overall the conviction levels on overweights remain very, very low. Industrials is still the most-favoured sector, but at +22 is a very modest reading and the other overweights are muted at around +10. Banks and Real Estate are still the most hated sectors at -49% and -47%, respectively, and remain contrarian buys.

Min tolkning av ovanstående är att undersökningen utgör ett marginellt stöd för att det är läge att vara lång. Dylika enkäter ska dock inte tillmätas särskilt mycket vikt, men lite trevligt är det att höra att många är negativa... och inte minst underviktade i bank.

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