fredag 11 juni 2010

WolfeTrahan och konsumenten

WTs senaste baissiga kommentar idag om den amerikanska konsumenten:

Can The U.S. Consumer Continue To Carry Economic Growth Higher In 2011 And Beyond?Economists Think So, Investors Think So, The Sell-Side Thinks So … We Are Not Convinced!

Next to the entire Chinese economy, the U.S. consumer is likely to be the largest incremental grower in world GDP in 2010. Thanks to government transfer payments (income), tax incentives (spending) and several government-sponsored forms of debt concession (balance sheet), personal consumption expenditures reached a record in the first quarter of 2010, in terms of both absolute size and percentage of the U.S. GDP. So, the U.S. is now more dependent on the consumer than ever. Moreover, many of the global imbalances that existed before this recession are now widening again – trade balances within Europe continue to widen and China is still raking in a trade surplus from the United States. Will the U.S. consumer keep consuming?

According to economists’ GDP forecasts for 2011 and 2012, growth will not only continue, but accelerate in the coming years. Given that consumers make up 71% of GDP, economists are making an implicit forecast for strong consumption in the years ahead. Investors are also bullish on the consumer. Year-to-date, the Consumer Discretionary sector is the top performer. Relative performance of this sector tends to lead consumption growth by a couple of quarters (bottom left figure). Lastly, the sell-side is also bullish - roughly 80% of Discretionary stocks carry a mean-analyst buy rating, the highest since 2000 (bottom right figure). Such exuberance towards the consumer does not corroborate with the fundamentals in our view. We see this as the biggest risk to an economic re-acceleration in 2011.

Attityden passar ganska bra idag, efter den svaga retailstatistiken (som dock justerat för byggmaterial faktiskt var helt ok), men jag tycker WT har helt fel fokus för att vara relevant för aktiehandel IDAG.

Jag sitter ganska nöjd och lång, vilket inte ska vara någon nyhet för läsarna

2 kommentarer:

Anonym sa...

Har du redan nu en target exit eller tar du det på volley?


Peter Eek sa...

Volley gäller, men förhoppningsvis finns 20% uppsida kvar på marknaden