ISI: "...we still believe in the US Manufacturing Renaissance. Since the beginning of the year, there have been 62 examples of this Renaissance, ie, more than one a week. Last week's examples were Apple announcing it would mfg Macs in the US and Honda announcing it would be a net exporter from the US."
Personligen tycker jag att ISI har tappat "allt" och jag lyssnar inte längre på dem, men de har nog ändå hyggligt rätt om USAs återkomst som tillverkarland.
Visar inlägg med etikett isi. Visa alla inlägg
Visar inlägg med etikett isi. Visa alla inlägg
måndag 10 december 2012
måndag 22 oktober 2012
Makroekonomer...
Jämför ISIs (ytliga och positiva) syn på makro och husmarknad med tidigare (mer djuplodande, intelligenta och negativa) inlägg från Hussman
ISI's homebuilders survey surged a game-changing +3 pts to almost 60, suggesting housing starts increase further in Oct on top of Sep's increase to almost 0.9m.
[Thus], even though disappointing earnings and revenue reports hit the S&P hard on Friday, odds last week continued to increase that the US economy improves in 4Q
ISIs Ed Hyman har vinnit pris som bästa makroekonom 24 år i rad (om inte mer nu). Ändå ser han inte längre än näsan räcker avseende housing... Det kanske glädjer någon läsare att jag i år till slut har sagt upp avtalet med ISI och på så sätt kommer spara några miljoner om året och dessutom slippa lyssna på firmans "analyser".
ISI's homebuilders survey surged a game-changing +3 pts to almost 60, suggesting housing starts increase further in Oct on top of Sep's increase to almost 0.9m.
[Thus], even though disappointing earnings and revenue reports hit the S&P hard on Friday, odds last week continued to increase that the US economy improves in 4Q
ISIs Ed Hyman har vinnit pris som bästa makroekonom 24 år i rad (om inte mer nu). Ändå ser han inte längre än näsan räcker avseende housing... Det kanske glädjer någon läsare att jag i år till slut har sagt upp avtalet med ISI och på så sätt kommer spara några miljoner om året och dessutom slippa lyssna på firmans "analyser".
tisdag 25 september 2012
Två sätt att se världen
Så här ser en av våra amerikanska mäklarfirmor, ISI, på världen idag:
Just more good economic news was released this morning. Home prices are up, stocks prices are up, the unemployment rate is down and gasoline prices have rolled over. It should not be surprising that consumer confidence is on the upswing. Furthermore, the drag from the cancellations of prior placed foreign order upon that the regional and national mfg surveys is waning.
Så här ser de riktiga nyheterna ut idag:
Daimler is planning to cut production at its largest car plant, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters, as deteriorating markets in Europe and China hit sales of its Mercedes-Benz cars.
S&P Cuts 2013 Euro Zone GDP Growth Forecast to 0.0% Vs +0.3%
GREECE MAY HAVE TO RAISE MORE MONEY FROM DEBT MARKETS IN 2015 AND 2016 THAN THE 10.6 BILLION EUROS FORESEEN IN ITS BAILOUT AGREEMENT EARLIER THIS YEAR - DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER STAIKOURAS
GREECE MAY SEEK A ROLLOVER OF GREEK BONDS HELD BY THE ECB AS ONE OPTION TO PLUG FINANCING GAP IN COMING YEARS - DEP FINMIN SAYS IN DOCUMENT
EMERSON ELECTRIC lowers full year sales growth as economic growth around the world continue to decelerate.
*VOLKSWAGEN SAYS 2H WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT
*INFINEON SEES 1Q REVENUE FALLING UP TO 10% VS 4Q
VOLVO SAYS SLOWING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY RESULTING IN WEAKENING TRUCK DEMAND ACROSS EUROPE - RTRS
*CATALAN LEADER MAS CALLS EARLY ELECTIONS FOR NOV. 25
Och vad gäller huspriserna så:
House price index worse +0,2% vs expected +0,6%
och även Case Shiller:
...it missed in the sequential Top 20 Composite price change, which printed at 0.44%, below expectations and half off the June price increase of 0.91%. In fact, as the chart below shows, the July increase was now the slowest sequential increase in the past 5 months, and at this rate, the August, or September data at the latest, will show a sequential decline in prices
dvs, återhämtningen i husprisindex kan redan sägas vara över
Just more good economic news was released this morning. Home prices are up, stocks prices are up, the unemployment rate is down and gasoline prices have rolled over. It should not be surprising that consumer confidence is on the upswing. Furthermore, the drag from the cancellations of prior placed foreign order upon that the regional and national mfg surveys is waning.
Så här ser de riktiga nyheterna ut idag:
Daimler is planning to cut production at its largest car plant, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters, as deteriorating markets in Europe and China hit sales of its Mercedes-Benz cars.
S&P Cuts 2013 Euro Zone GDP Growth Forecast to 0.0% Vs +0.3%
GREECE MAY HAVE TO RAISE MORE MONEY FROM DEBT MARKETS IN 2015 AND 2016 THAN THE 10.6 BILLION EUROS FORESEEN IN ITS BAILOUT AGREEMENT EARLIER THIS YEAR - DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER STAIKOURAS
GREECE MAY SEEK A ROLLOVER OF GREEK BONDS HELD BY THE ECB AS ONE OPTION TO PLUG FINANCING GAP IN COMING YEARS - DEP FINMIN SAYS IN DOCUMENT
EMERSON ELECTRIC lowers full year sales growth as economic growth around the world continue to decelerate.
*VOLKSWAGEN SAYS 2H WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT
*INFINEON SEES 1Q REVENUE FALLING UP TO 10% VS 4Q
VOLVO SAYS SLOWING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY RESULTING IN WEAKENING TRUCK DEMAND ACROSS EUROPE - RTRS
*CATALAN LEADER MAS CALLS EARLY ELECTIONS FOR NOV. 25
Och vad gäller huspriserna så:
House price index worse +0,2% vs expected +0,6%
och även Case Shiller:
...it missed in the sequential Top 20 Composite price change, which printed at 0.44%, below expectations and half off the June price increase of 0.91%. In fact, as the chart below shows, the July increase was now the slowest sequential increase in the past 5 months, and at this rate, the August, or September data at the latest, will show a sequential decline in prices
dvs, återhämtningen i husprisindex kan redan sägas vara över
måndag 21 juni 2010
ISI och double dip
ISI påpekar i e.m. att man ofta (felaktigt) spår double dip [t.ex. min best guess just nu] under återhämtningsfasen:
Double-Dip Concerns Common in US Recoveries
In 1991, GDP slowed to +1.7% and +1.6% in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of recovery. (The mfg PMI fell from 54.9% to 46.8%.) Growth in the next year of recovery, was +4.3%. In 2002, GDP slowed to +0.1% and +1.6% in the 4th and 5th quarters of recovery. Growth in the next year averaged +4.1%.
And because of revisions, judging the pace of recovery is particularly difficult. For example, GDP in 1Q of 1992 was originally reported to be +2.9% -- now +4.5%. GDP in 2Q was originally reported to be +1.5% -- now +4.3%, and 3Q was +2.7% -- now +4.2%.
Double-Dip Concerns Common in US Recoveries
In 1991, GDP slowed to +1.7% and +1.6% in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of recovery. (The mfg PMI fell from 54.9% to 46.8%.) Growth in the next year of recovery, was +4.3%. In 2002, GDP slowed to +0.1% and +1.6% in the 4th and 5th quarters of recovery. Growth in the next year averaged +4.1%.
And because of revisions, judging the pace of recovery is particularly difficult. For example, GDP in 1Q of 1992 was originally reported to be +2.9% -- now +4.5%. GDP in 2Q was originally reported to be +1.5% -- now +4.3%, and 3Q was +2.7% -- now +4.2%.
onsdag 9 juni 2010
Lånat material från en av de bästa boutiquerna
Teknisk analys (kasta kycklingben, spå i teblad, astrologi) från ISI på S&P 500 (en av de bästa tekniska analytikerna på marknaden, halvfundamental):
The reality of the world is that this market could do just about anything at this point. 1040 represents some minor support, but our 65-day low being violated suggests real damage has been done to stocks. The percentage of names making 20-day lows has expanded and 10-day TRIN readings both imply a bounce, but at what cost? Credit has firmed, but intra-bank lending stress continues to dominate, and the message from the charts of the world suggests as commodities, currencies, equities and fixed income tell a similar story. In a "normal" environment, a distribution process will persist over an extended period. If that applies in this tape, it should produce a "right-shoulder" formation (somewhere back to 1150 [just nu kl 17.02 den 9 juni: 1070] and then fail. That's what we are playing for, but admittedly the risk to our call is the domination of credit, and therefore distribution gets translated into liquidation at lower levels." (Jeff deGraaf)
ISI är annars mest känt för sin makroanalys där de har avgjort bäst och mest data i branschen (och flest förstaplatser i rankingen senaste kvartsseklet)
The reality of the world is that this market could do just about anything at this point. 1040 represents some minor support, but our 65-day low being violated suggests real damage has been done to stocks. The percentage of names making 20-day lows has expanded and 10-day TRIN readings both imply a bounce, but at what cost? Credit has firmed, but intra-bank lending stress continues to dominate, and the message from the charts of the world suggests as commodities, currencies, equities and fixed income tell a similar story. In a "normal" environment, a distribution process will persist over an extended period. If that applies in this tape, it should produce a "right-shoulder" formation (somewhere back to 1150 [just nu kl 17.02 den 9 juni: 1070] and then fail. That's what we are playing for, but admittedly the risk to our call is the domination of credit, and therefore distribution gets translated into liquidation at lower levels." (Jeff deGraaf)
ISI är annars mest känt för sin makroanalys där de har avgjort bäst och mest data i branschen (och flest förstaplatser i rankingen senaste kvartsseklet)
Prenumerera på:
Kommentarer (Atom)