En riktigt STOR genomgång av det ekonomiska läget

Pictet Investment Strategy 2012:
 
I korthet på svenska: Den ekonomiska tillväxten i väst blir låg. Det blir fortsatt volatilt på de finansiella marknaderna, aktier faller men svänger kraftigt, guld är fortfarande ett bra ställe att hålla pengarna. Företagsobligationer (i säkra bolag) kan vara bästa stället att söka bättre avkastning
 
 
1. Global overview: current major trends in the global economy

• Developed markets' growth cycle is not virtuous due to the lack of credit and job creation. Growth rates are well below their potential. At the opposite, emerging market economies benefit from vigorous domestic demand: economic growth does not show any sign of serious
  slowdown.
• Inflationary pressures should recede by the end of this year in both developed markets and emerging markets' economies. Headline figures evolve well above levels targeted by central banks.
• In 2011, developed markets' central banks adopted new rounds of quantitative easing except the ECB. However, the efficiency of monetary intervention is limited because credit mechanisms are still broken: the deleveraging process is still ongoing.
• The euro crisis is intensifying. Governments struggle to adopt adequate measures to tackle the source of the problem.
• As a consequence, financial markets are requiring higher risk premiums for sovereign bonds. It generates aggravating financing conditions in the real European economies. Hence economic growth is on the path of a vicious circle.

 
 
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57. Investment strategy takeaway (I)
Because the doubt about the sustainability of the global economic recovery and the final outcome of the euro crisis remain the two main drivers,  the 2012 investment outlook should be amazingly similar to 2011.
Financial markets should be driven by political decisions. In developed markets' economies, economic policy will be required to boost economic growth, but governments lack leeway to act due to deep public deficits and painful overindebtedness.
Receding inflationary pressures should allow developed markets' central banks to act in favour of growth. But will they do it ?
We have determined 3 volatility regimes for most asset classes: equities, currencies and commodities.
The low volatility regime is observed in a standard economic growth cycle. It does not apply to economies of developed markets ever since they evolve in a overindebtedness regime.
In 2012, financial markets should continue to evolve in volatility regimes ranging from average to high, in function of the systemic risk aggravation (euro crisis and bank bankruptcies).
In these volatility regimes, the correlation between asset classes should stay abnormally high in 2012.
 
58. Investment strategy takeaway (II)
In such an environment, our tactical asset allocation style remains appropriate. We articulate the asset allocation and the portfolio construction in  two stages. The first aims at protecting capital and at generating a return from defensive assets: gold, corporate bonds and low volatility equities.
The second aims at generating a return through the tactical asset allocation.
The frequent sudden and brutal tendency disruptions should constitute the investor's environment.
The major market tendencies to construct the TAA should be:

• A continuation of the equity secular bear market. The economic slowdown is pressuring earnings growth, which is the main driver of equities.
• Developed markets' sovereign bonds are classified in two groups. The first, safe government bonds, is represented by German Bunds and US  Treasuries. The second includes government bonds that remain at risk.
• The aggravation of the over-indebtedness of states crisis could affect the safe haven status of the German Bunds and US Treasuries.

Performance discrepancies between currencies could increase in an elevated global market volatility regime. However, unilateral central bank currency market interventions create dysfunctions. As a consequence, playing these markets will prove difficult.
Even though gold has become more volatile, the asset maintains its safe haven status. The unavoidable developed markets' central bank interventions constitute the fundamental driver for the increase in gold price towards our medium term price target of USD 3'000.
Corporate bonds, particularly in the investment grade segment, are of real interest for investors. Corporate bonds remain a strategic asset.