Så här (bl.a.) säger Mr Janjuah i sitt senaste marknadsbrev (idag 18 nov)
Germany appears to be adamant that full political and fiscal integration over the next
decade (nothing substantive will happen over the short term, in my view) is the only
option, and ECB monetisation is no longer possible. I really think it is that clear and
simple. And if I am wrong, and the ECB does a U-turn and agrees to unlimited
monetisation, I will simply wait for the inevitable knee-jerk rally to fade before reloading
my short risk positions. Even if Germany and the ECB somehow agree to unlimited
monetisation I believe it will do nothing to fix the insolvency and lack of growth in the
eurozone. It will just result in a major destruction of the ECB‟s balance sheet which will
force an ECB recap. At that point, I think Germany and its northern partners would walk
away. Markets always want short, sharp, simple solutions. This is why the begging
bowl is out for ECB unlimited monetisation. But, as in the immortal words of Messrs
Jagger and Richards, „you can‟t always get want you want‟.
I firmly believe that any conditional or finite monetisation would actually be the worst
idea (most of the downside, very little of the upside, of infinite monetisation), but
probably the most likely „compromise‟ if Germany were ever to „give‟ on this issue.
...och...
Having said all that, on a shorter timeframe a case can be made for a largely technical bounce higher in risk assets – based on price action rather than any genuinely positive fundamental developments.
samt...
I still put an 80% probability on the break to the downside and 1100s S&P/perhaps low 1000s before year-end.
Germany appears to be adamant that full political and fiscal integration over the next
decade (nothing substantive will happen over the short term, in my view) is the only
option, and ECB monetisation is no longer possible. I really think it is that clear and
simple. And if I am wrong, and the ECB does a U-turn and agrees to unlimited
monetisation, I will simply wait for the inevitable knee-jerk rally to fade before reloading
my short risk positions. Even if Germany and the ECB somehow agree to unlimited
monetisation I believe it will do nothing to fix the insolvency and lack of growth in the
eurozone. It will just result in a major destruction of the ECB‟s balance sheet which will
force an ECB recap. At that point, I think Germany and its northern partners would walk
away. Markets always want short, sharp, simple solutions. This is why the begging
bowl is out for ECB unlimited monetisation. But, as in the immortal words of Messrs
Jagger and Richards, „you can‟t always get want you want‟.
I firmly believe that any conditional or finite monetisation would actually be the worst
idea (most of the downside, very little of the upside, of infinite monetisation), but
probably the most likely „compromise‟ if Germany were ever to „give‟ on this issue.
...och...
Having said all that, on a shorter timeframe a case can be made for a largely technical bounce higher in risk assets – based on price action rather than any genuinely positive fundamental developments.
samt...
I still put an 80% probability on the break to the downside and 1100s S&P/perhaps low 1000s before year-end.
1 kommentar:
Jag tror att ezb ger vika i en kompromiss med tyskland. Tror inte att vi behöver stå så mycket lägre för att något sådant kan ske. Tror tillräckligt många tvivlar för att ett rally inträffar om så sker, men tror att tillräckligt många är säkra på ezb för att undvika tokras. När officiella personer börjar lufta åsikter om konstruktioner för att kringgå reglerna (lån till imf från ezb var det väl nån som föreslog tror jag) så tror jag inte bara att så sker, utan känner även att det kan ligga i närtid.
Minns du bröderna lejonhjärta, när segern nästan var ett faktum så tillkallade tengil draken genom att blåsa i trumpeten. Well, upplever att de officiella just blåst i trumpeten och att ezb kan stiga upp och jag vågar inte gå emot utan flyr. Men jag kan definitivt har fel, men vågar inte ta risken, inte just nu i alla fall.
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