Positiv makrokommentar från Deutsche

Deutsche Banks Joe LaVorgna skriver:

Data from the durable goods report are used in estimating capital spending (capex), which appears to have made a noticeable recovery. Following a 21.2% peak to trough decline in capex that spanned Q4 2007 to Q2 2009, capex grew 1.5% at an annualized rate in Q3 and then 13.3% at an annualized rate in Q4. Importantly, data on the production of computers and electrical equipment, another series used by the Commerce Department to estimate capex, increased at a 19% annualized rate in January so the recovery appears to be continuing at a rapid pace. We expect further confirmation of these trends in today’s durables report where we project 1.5% gains in both the headline and ex transportation components. Consequently, we are confident the recovery already seen in capex and which appears to be continuing into Q1 has some legs to it, and ultimately this should bode well for hiring because it would be unprecedented to have strong capex and negligible hiring.

Idag 14.30 får vi veta hur det blev. Med lite tur glömmer man den märkliga consumer confidence-siffran då.