Såna här rapporter roar jag mig med dagligen. Det finns oftast mycket lite eller inget informationsvärde i dem, men de är ändå lite underhållande. I just den här rapporten från Credit Suisse lyfter analytikerna fram konsumentaktier i Emerging Markets som bra aktieinvesteringar. Jag håller med dem, men de radar verkligen upp alla aktier de kan komma på. Budskapet man kan ta med sig ärdock att 1. Köpa i Asien, 2. Köpa konsumentaktier i bred bemärkelse, t.ex. bank, underhållning och kommunikation.
The structural rebalancing of consumption between developed and
developing markets is a core element of Credit Suisse’s global equity
strategy. In order to gauge which sectors are best placed to benefit from
growth in emerging market consumption, we look at the long-term history
from the US, France and Japan to see how their consumer expenditure
patterns changed as income levels improved. Specifically, we consider the
growth in consumer expenditure by sector as GDP rose from US$7,000 to
US$9,000 per capita (which is in line with current and 2014E IMF forecast
levels of GDP per capita for GEM in aggregate).
Given the variety in GDP per capita and demographic trends within and
between the MSCI emerging markets, our recommended exposures include:
(1) consumer staples and utilities in the lower-income markets (India,
Indonesia, Egypt); (2) the healthcare sector in markets with significant
projected growth in per capita GDP and the over-65s population (India,
China, Latin America); and (3) consumer durables in fast-growing markets
with rising working-age populations (China, India, Thailand and Mexico).
■ The essential consumer items in the relatively low-income economies where growth is
forecast (on IMF estimates) to be relatively strong (India, Indonesia, Egypt as well as
many of the African markets). China fits the profile to some extent. We like Indofood
Sukses Makmur, Colgate India and China Yurun. Saudi-listed Almarai offers
exposure to strong growth in the low-income groups in its home market as well as
growth in Egyptian consumption via its recent acquisition of Beyti. Food retailer
Shoprite offers exposure to growth in the low- and middle-income consumers in South
Africa (87% of total sales 2009E) as well as other African markets (13% of sales).
■ It is a similar story for household utilities and fuels. We like Perusahaan Gas Negara,
and China Gas Holdings. We rate NTPC in India Neutral.
■ For exposure to housing, the analysis points towards middle-income emerging
markets with high relative growth in the working-age population and real GDP (China,
Peru, Mexico, Chile and Russia). We recommend exposure to Empresas ICA,
Gafisa, Sistema-Hals, China Vanke and Evergrande Real Estate Group. In India,
we would recommend Unitech.
■ Financial services in markets that offer the combination of rising GDP per capita,
preferably above a starting point of US$5,000, where financial penetration is still low,
such as China, Thailand and Mexico. Our preferred exposure would be via Bangkok
Bank, Siam Commercial Bank, China Life Insurance Co and China Construction
Bank. Prospects for this sector also look promising in India. We like HDFC Bank,
Bank of Baroda and Max India.
■ Interestingly, personal consumption of education expenditure was very strong in Japan
in the early 1960s despite a significant decline in the school-age population. The
rationale is simply that parents prioritise their children as their own income improves.
Hence, despite a declining school-age population for GEM in aggregate, we believe
the outlook for education is relatively strong, particularly since it is coming off a low
base relative to developed markets in an increasingly global market place. Within
GEM, it is the BRIC markets that look best placed to deliver the fastest rates of growth
in education. We like Everonn Education, Anhanguera Educacional, Estacio
Participacoes and Raffles Education.
■ Communication-related stocks in low- and middle-income emerging markets India,
Indonesia, Egypt and China. We recommend Excelcomindo Pratama, Indosat,
China Mobile and China Unicom. We rate Mobinil and Bharti Airtel as Neutral.
■ There is no long-term historical profile for the technology sector since it is relatively
new, but prevailing consumption trends across markets with a range of GDP per
capita levels suggest a sweet spot for this sector in the middle-income emerging
economies with strong relative growth and rising working-age populations. China,
Thailand, India, Peru and Mexico fit the profile. We recommend exposure through the
low-cost PC producers that supply these markets, for example Hon Hai, Asustek
Computer and Acer. Consumer electronics plays fit the same profile: We like Suning
Appliance Co in China and also highlight M.Video in Russia.
■ Healthcare plays in Malaysia, Thailand, India, China and Latin America (ex Argentina
and Venezuela). The combination of strong GDP growth and a significant increase in the over-65-years population suggests these are attractive markets for the healthcare
sector. Our recommendations include Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Piramal
Healthcare, Lupin, Dr.Reddy’s, Diagnosticos da America, OdontoPrev and China
■ Transport stocks in markets with rising working-age populations and strong growth in
GDP per capita, preferably where measures of transport penetration are still low
(China, India, Mexico, Chile, Russia and Turkey). We recommend Tata Motors,
Maruti Suzuki, Dongfeng Motors Group, Geely Automobile Holdings, BYD and
■ The analysis suggests that exposure to the Recreation sector is preferable in the
higher-income markets such as Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. We recommend Berjaya
Sports Toto, Tanjong and Kangwon Land