måndag 10 december 2012

Hussman om aktier och guld

Hussman om marknadens avsaknad av oro vs. problemen för fundamenta: "...a fairly dramatic disparity between continued economic and valuation headwinds (particularly on a “cyclical” horizon of 18-24 months) and complacent short-term conditions that rest on the continuation of massive monetary and fiscal imbalances..."

Hussman jämför 2012 med 2000 och 2007 som lugnet innan stormen: "...corrections in 2012 have been fairly shallow...we also observed that in 2000 and 2007 – when it would have been tragic to confuse the postponement of bad outcomes with an escape from them."

Hussman om strömmen av makrodata - stabil på låg nivå och ser ut som innan den senaste recessionen: "...data has been very mixed...most recent data as being negative but stable – not accelerating to the downside...focus on the overall levels and the persistence of those levels...about where it was at the beginning of the last recession."

Hussman noterar att ledande indikatorer indikerar negativa payrolls framöver (kanske inte 'printen' men efter revidering): "...average of overall, new orders, order backlog, and employment components of those surveys []. Overall, we observe a significant weakening of these measures, which is consistent with our expectation of employment losses in the months ahead."

Hussman om aktievärdering och börsutsikter (potentiellt -15% per år i 4 år framöver om det ska påminna om tidigare björnmarknader) "For the more pessimistic, a Shiller P/E of 7 reached 4-years from today would result in a prospective market loss of -14.9% annually over that 4-year period."

Till slut, angående guldpriset och guldaktier är Hussman försiktig, men noterar att relationen mellan guldpris och guldaktier samt utdelningen i gruvbolag är sådan att om man tror på uthålligt högt guldpris så är det (gruv-) aktierna man ska köpa, inte guldet. Jag har tidigare dragit motsatt slutsats men är benägen att ändra mig till en 50/50-fördelning istället vid mitt nästa guldköp:

Hussman: "ratio of the spot gold price to the Philadelphia Gold Index (XAU) is presently near the historic high it reached during the credit crisis, and several gold shares presently have higher dividend yields than the S&P 500 itself – a remarkable change from historical norms. Though our allocation to precious metals shares remains moderate given the potential for investors to continue treating them as a “risk on” asset, any shift toward expectations of durably elevated gold prices (even without higher levels than at present) seems likely to primarily benefit the shares rather than the metal"

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