tisdag 22 februari 2011

Revolutionerna i mellanöstern - stagflatoriskt på kort sikt

Pimcos Mohamed El-Erians kommentar (i Financial Times) på Libyen:
In the short run, regional developments will be stagflationary for the global economy due to three main factors: First, higher oil prices will increase production costs and act as a tax on consumers. Second, greater precautionary stockpiling around the world will intensify pressures on commodities as a whole, aggravating the impact of demand-supply imbalances and large injections of liquidity. Third, the region will be a smaller market for other countries' exports.
...western economies have little room left for further demand stimulus. Some have already embarked on fiscal consolidation.
...recent evidence of inflationary pressures is already influencing the narrative of some central banks
För övrigt: Gundlach tror inte på inflation som ett hot. Tvärtom.

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