P/E-tal

Ska PE-talet upp eller ned under året? Jag tror att det ska ned (och att vinstprognoserna dessutom ska justeras ned), men mitt huvudspår är att detta sker under senhösten. Bilden gäller S&P 500, men kan i stort appliceras även på Eurostoxx och OMX.


Morgan Stanley (Minack) skrev följande häromdagen:

Equity markets can rise in tightening phases. However, it's typical that the PE contracts (Exhibit 6). Put another way, the early stage of recovery is the sweet spot where earning forecasts rise without a PE penalty. Once recovery seems assured, rising rates can lead to PE compression that, at a minimum, slows the rally. However, the PE compression can completely offset higher earnings [dvs ge fallande kurser]. This fits with Adam Parker's view that US equities will de-rate this year