tisdag 18 januari 2011

Strategas ger en nyanserad bild

Strategas (avhoppare från ISI) ger ungefär samma bild som jag själv har - dvs visst finns det uppsida, men först borde det bli en korrektion. De uttrycker det dock i omvänd ordning (det finns gott om anledningar för en aktiemarknadskorrektion, men fakta pekar på en stabil konjunkturuppgång [som borde lyfta aktier över dagens nivå]):

As our Strategy team has noted, there are a number of near-term catalysts for a market correction, including bullish sentiment, strain remaining in the periphery of Europe, the chance commodity inflation encourages further tightening in emerging markets, the need to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, the chance that the east coast blizzards affect the U.S. payrolls data near-term, and a remaining fear of financial regulation (eg, Massachusetts).   But Don Rissmiller notes in today's Economics Update that key fundamental economic data continue to support the view that we are in an upswing in the business cycle, even though the pace of growth has not been exceptionally strong yet, and there remain structural problems (eg, housing debt).

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