onsdag 19 januari 2011

Nomura är positiva, men med brasklappar

Nomuras variant på samma tema som jag och ganska många har för 2011, dvs att det lär bli ett bra år, men att risken för en tillfällig nedgång är stor just nu samt att det också finns viss risk för en större nedgång, en systemrisk, lite senare eller som möjligen börjar redan nu:

• The GOOD - 2011 could be a great year for risk. The combination of reasonable growth, low inflation and Fed on hold is a recipe for a decline in risk premiums.

• The BAD - Tactical warning signals exist when looking at a range of equity and bond sentiment and positioning indicators. Markets are ripe for a correction and vulnearable to over-reacting to bad news

• The UGLY - The top three tail risks include: too hot US growth causing rate expectations to be brought forward, oil prices cause a non-linear demand destruction, and China deciding it is in their interest to rapidly appreciate their currency by 20%. The unintended consequence is a massive yield spike in UST yields

• Several things make the honourable mention. Expectations about Europe are so low, undershooting them is near impossible. However, Spain remains a too big to fail zone. The battle lines are drawn. Ironically, the European crisis would go away if the ECB revved up their buyer of last resort role.

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