måndag 29 november 2010

Morgan Stanleys strategi 2011... - köp aktier

Morgan Stanley antar följande hållning inför nästa år:


Graham Secker + team think that the bull market for global stocks is not over as the global economy's nominal GDP growth is higher than bond yields next year. This relationship has held up really well over the past 15 years, for the US as well as for Japan (see below exhibit 30 on page 11). Our economists see 4.2% for global GDP growth 2011.


A risk to this scenario in the short term is the high volatility around euro-zone sovereign debt related issues
As for EPS growth, we see another year of double-digit EPS growth. This is mainly based on topline growth and less on margin expansion where we see higher input prices (we have 25 bps margin improvement 2011). We are at 12% eps growth for 2012 vs 18% for consensus (on higher margins). As we see the market around fair value, we assume in our base case that equities rise with eps growth next year
Country investing: on the back of GDP growth>bond yields, we prefer the relative security (and better growth prospects) of Germany, Scandinavia and the UK. We would underweight Greece, IRL and Spain. This despite the outperformance of Germany over Spain this year (before 2010, Spain outperformed Germany for 17 years...).

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