En av våra leverantörer skriver idag om 12 störande moment just nu:
This package of disturbing developments may be worth noting: 1) Greek contagion, 2) the flash crash, 3) Thailand riots, 4) S Korea/N Korea tensions, 5) German naked short selling ban, 6) Gulf oil spill, 7) Australia's 40% tax, 8) US govt pressure on Goldman and Morgan Stanley, 9) US financial regulations for banks and credit card cos, 10) China property risks, 11) market volatility in general, and 12) tighter credit conditions in particular.
Samtidigt skriver de att arbetsmarknaden visar mycket positiva tecken:
The surveys results for 2007, 2008, and 2009 have been excellent predictors of employment -- excellent. The survey result for 2010 is a net +30% more hiring than less, which compares to +9% for 2007, -11% for 2008, and -66% for 2009. This is a very strong reason that the Soft Patch should prove temporary.
...och...
China Has Probably Turned the Corner
The property market's surge appears to have been reined in, economic growth overall appears to have slowed, pork prices, which have a huge weight in the CPI, have declined -15% over the past 4 months, and the CPI has slowed over the past 3 months. In addition, the yuan has surged against the euro and China exports have been flat for 4 months. The Shanghai Composite has declined -26% and 10-year bond yields have declined -60bp. China growth-related trades such as the A$ and copper have been hit hard.
China suggested last week it will wait to revalue the yuan "until economic clarity increases." And Don Straszheim believes that if more evidence appears that house prices have stopped increasing, policymakers will back off. If that happens, the Shanghai Composite could start to rally (particularly if Chinese investors shift their investments from property back to stocks). It could lead stock markets around the world back up.
The property market's surge appears to have been reined in, economic growth overall appears to have slowed, pork prices, which have a huge weight in the CPI, have declined -15% over the past 4 months, and the CPI has slowed over the past 3 months. In addition, the yuan has surged against the euro and China exports have been flat for 4 months. The Shanghai Composite has declined -26% and 10-year bond yields have declined -60bp. China growth-related trades such as the A$ and copper have been hit hard.
China suggested last week it will wait to revalue the yuan "until economic clarity increases." And Don Straszheim believes that if more evidence appears that house prices have stopped increasing, policymakers will back off. If that happens, the Shanghai Composite could start to rally (particularly if Chinese investors shift their investments from property back to stocks). It could lead stock markets around the world back up.
Är det här ett bra tecken? (Kina Shenzhen index har studsat):
Jag har som sagt redan köpt och är redo att köpa ännu mer om det faller en gång till inom kort. Annars sitter jag nöjd med en lagom lång position genom förhoppningsvis ett rally på någon eller några månader, kanske ännu längre. Men sen gäller det att vara beredd för Ragnarök väntar runt hörnet...
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