tisdag 18 maj 2010

Inte min normala källa till visdom..., men

Russel på Dow Theory får ordet:

RICHARD RUSSEL - DOW THEORY LETTERS: Just as for years I asked, cajoled, insisted, threatened, demanded, that my subscribers buy gold, I am now insisting, demanding, begging my subscribers to get OUT of stocks (including C and BYD, but not includinggolds) and get into cash or gold (bullion if possible).

If the two Averages violate their May 7 lows, I see a major crash as the outcome. Pul - leeze, get out of stocks now, and I don't give a damn whether you have paper losses or paper profits!Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten downthe hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country. They'll retort, "How the dickens does Russell know -- who told him?"

Tell them the stock market told him

Min kommentar: Han vet INGENTING och marknaden har inte talat om något för honom förstås,... men han kan mycket väl få rätt. Obalanserna i världsekonomin är allvarliga och det är nog mest anchoring som gör att man=jag inte riktigt drar de rätta slutsatserna (dvs tillräckligt negativa slutsatser)

Tillägg: Mitt svar till en kompis angående ovanstående

No real dead line as I understand it. Imminent doom if anything J.

However, you shouldn’t pay too much attention to just ONE market pundit. I think he may be proven right in the end but it could just as well take 5 more years, with a bullish blow off market first, fuelled by low interest rates and easy money.

I DO think it is more likely with a sharp downturn around now, or at least before year end… and that could trigger an even more serious multi-year downturn due to global imbalances (large government debts, e.g.). But then again, who am I to say anything about this when guys like Clegg, Cameron, Bernanke, Sarkozy, Trichet, Merkel and Papandreo are in charge?

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