Goldman har sammanställt precis hur dåliga analytiker är på att göra vinstprognoser. De är extra dåliga när det gäller nedgångar och vändpunkter. Faktum är att de senaste 22 åren har analytikerna aldrig förväntat sig fallande vinster.
(i) [GS expects EU profits to fall by 10% in 2012] In the meantime, I/B/E/S bottom-up consensus expects earnings to grow by 9.4% next year.
(ii) It is not unusual for consensus to be revised in either way significantly through the year: the average of the absolute differences between the first estimate of the year and the final earnings number is higher than 15%. Additionally it is not unusual to have earnings revised by 30% or more at turning points.
(iii) Consensus tends to be overly optimistic. The average earnings revision is -9% and over the 22 years of history we have for Europe, 15 have seen negative revisions and only 7 positive revisions. This is especially true at turning points. Since 1989 consensus has never expected a negative profit growth at the beginning of the year (taking the end of January estimate) while European profits actually fell 6 times over the past 22 years
(i) [GS expects EU profits to fall by 10% in 2012] In the meantime, I/B/E/S bottom-up consensus expects earnings to grow by 9.4% next year.
(ii) It is not unusual for consensus to be revised in either way significantly through the year: the average of the absolute differences between the first estimate of the year and the final earnings number is higher than 15%. Additionally it is not unusual to have earnings revised by 30% or more at turning points.
(iii) Consensus tends to be overly optimistic. The average earnings revision is -9% and over the 22 years of history we have for Europe, 15 have seen negative revisions and only 7 positive revisions. This is especially true at turning points. Since 1989 consensus has never expected a negative profit growth at the beginning of the year (taking the end of January estimate) while European profits actually fell 6 times over the past 22 years
2 kommentarer:
vad tusan har hänt med volatiliteten. Varför det läget lugnt helt plötsligt?
Det senaste handelsdygnet har europeiska aktier först fallit över 3% och sedan stigit över 3%.
DET kallar jag för volatilitet.
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