måndag 26 april 2010

Plus och minus från MS

Morgan Stanley igår (lite blandat och nyanserat; långa nu/tills vidare men med baissig underton på slutet [-20%-ras förr eller senare för aktier]):

Finally, the rally has continued despite lingering sovereign debt concerns. Yes, clearly European-centered stress is hurting expectations for a European recovery. Otherwise, it seems that the market sees sovereign risk as contained now as sub-prime risk was in 2007. There may even be imminent 'good news' if the IMF supports Greece. However, our reading of history suggests that the IMF injecting liquidity is will not change a dire medium-term prognosis.

We are overweight risk assets. We are waiting for the leading indicators to moderate. For now, most are near, or at, cycle highs. Our US macro team expects that the manufacturing ISM index will rise again in April (reported May). When we move, however, we'll be aiming to avoid a 20%-plus set-back in equities. We think that that is coming. The structural problems remain, and we still think that earnings will disappoint in 2011.

Tactically, there may be a pause. Sentiment has improved markedly. It seems investors have tilted more to cyclical sectors (clearly reflected in recent performance), and hedge funds have added leverage. (However, we think the change in sentiment has been more dramatic than the change in positioning as last year's rally had already dragged in many bears. What's changed is that those holders are now less bearish.)

Moreover, it's difficult to imagine the splendid mix of better bottom-up and top-down news continuing far into May.

Inga kommentarer: