En artikel I FT online idag av El-Erian på Pimco varnar för betydelsen av Greklandstoryn
Global investors worldwide are starting to pay more attention to what is unfolding in Greece. Yet most still think of Greece as an isolated case, just as they did for Dubai a few months ago. With time, they will see Greece as part of a much larger investment theme that is a direct outcome of the global financial crisis: the 2008-09 ballooning of sovereign balance sheets in advanced economies is consequential and is becoming an important influence on valuations in many markets around the world.
Second, evidence that other peripherals in Europe – such as Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain – are also being impacted. This is happening, as signalled by the gradual widening in market risk spreads.
Over the next few days, we are likely to get some combination of Greek and European donor announcements aimed at calming markets, reducing volatility, and reducing contagion risk. But the impact on markets is unlikely to be sustained as both sides face multi-round, protracted challenges which contain all the elements of complex game dynamics.
No matter how you view it, markets in Greece will remain volatile and more global investors will be paying attention. In the process, this will accelerate the more general recognition that sovereign balance sheets in many advanced economies are now in play when it comes to broad portfolio positioning considerations.
Mohamed El-Erian is chief executive of Pimco, the bond investor
Han tillför inte särskilt mycket för att vara en sån big shot. Varför skulle ovanstående vara ett problem för aktiemarknaden? Oavsett hans negativa slutsatser så fokusera på tredje stycket som ett åtminstone tillfälligt köpläge. Därefter kan ni välja själva. Dubai blåste ju över med besked och gav utrymme för nya highs. Jag tror samma sak händer igen.