Howard Marks om Augusti, så som han citerades på Zerohedge:
Oaktree's Howard Marks once again cuts through what he perceives is the market's irrationality to explain what, to him, was the cause of the historic market collapse in early August: "Markets usually do a pretty good job of coping with problems one at a time. When one arises, analysts analyze and investors reach conclusions and calmly adjust their portfolios. But when there's a confluence of negative events, the markets can become overwhelmed and lose their cool. Things that might be tolerable individually combine into an unfathomable mess whose extent and ramifications seem beyond analysis. Market crises are chaotic, not orderly, and the multiplicity and simultaneity of contributing causes play a big part in making them so. It's my sense that it was the simultaneous nature of these occurrences – in addition to, or perhaps rather than, their force individually – that rendered the markets so incapable of maintaining their equanimity.Certainly that was the case in early August. For the first time in history, the Dow Industrials either rose or fell by at least 400 points four days in a row... Importantly, we saw the onset of one of those negative feedback loops where intelligence is imputed to market developments. We're told the falling prices reflect problems lying ahead, and thus investors sell in response to the message being provided by . . . investors who're selling. Again, I think it was the collective force of these things that convinced people the world was a scary place. What could be worse than the convergence of a number of major worries whose extent, interaction and solution seem beyond comprehension."
Alltså: det blev för många orosmoment på samma gång, snarare än att de var så himla farliga. Dessutom tolkades marknadsnedgången som om den innehöll relevant information om kommande negativ ekonomisk utveckling.
Oaktree's Howard Marks once again cuts through what he perceives is the market's irrationality to explain what, to him, was the cause of the historic market collapse in early August: "Markets usually do a pretty good job of coping with problems one at a time. When one arises, analysts analyze and investors reach conclusions and calmly adjust their portfolios. But when there's a confluence of negative events, the markets can become overwhelmed and lose their cool. Things that might be tolerable individually combine into an unfathomable mess whose extent and ramifications seem beyond analysis. Market crises are chaotic, not orderly, and the multiplicity and simultaneity of contributing causes play a big part in making them so. It's my sense that it was the simultaneous nature of these occurrences – in addition to, or perhaps rather than, their force individually – that rendered the markets so incapable of maintaining their equanimity.Certainly that was the case in early August. For the first time in history, the Dow Industrials either rose or fell by at least 400 points four days in a row... Importantly, we saw the onset of one of those negative feedback loops where intelligence is imputed to market developments. We're told the falling prices reflect problems lying ahead, and thus investors sell in response to the message being provided by . . . investors who're selling. Again, I think it was the collective force of these things that convinced people the world was a scary place. What could be worse than the convergence of a number of major worries whose extent, interaction and solution seem beyond comprehension."
Alltså: det blev för många orosmoment på samma gång, snarare än att de var så himla farliga. Dessutom tolkades marknadsnedgången som om den innehöll relevant information om kommande negativ ekonomisk utveckling.
6 kommentarer:
Förstår, men var det så mycket som sammanföll jämfört med tidigare. Antyds väl också att marknaden inte diskonterar allt utan fokuserar på enskilda saker utan att se helheten. Borde man inte då kunna klå marknaden genom att göra det motsatta?
Wow, nu ser det illa ut.....Kanske kommer rekylen efter paniken som infinner sig nu på morgonen?
Otroligt sugen på att köpa nu, men det verkar ju vara helt bottenlöst?
Spännande utveckling. Jag har läst det här helt fel förstås, men det är ändå intressant att se på vilket sätt man blir lurad av marknaden.
Jag var inte beredd på att marknaden skulle "orka" falla mer inför en sannolik, men inte bekräftad recession. Ändå har europaaktier redan fallit mer i september än augusti.
Jag köper ytterligare lite precis nu. Planen är att öka successivt genom raset, vilket jag förstås redan gjort till en hög kostnad, men har utrymme att fortsätta med.
Är det så klokt att satsa på Eurostoxx 50 med tanke på de europeiska bankernas vikt? Har marknaden redan diskonterat en eventuell betalninsinställelse från Grekland?
Det spelar inte så stor roll vad man köper i det här läget. Korrelationen mellan olika branscher och även tillgångsslag har gått mot 100% på sistone.
Se till att hålla hög likviditet bara så du kan komma ur snabbt om du vill.
Ingen riktig panikkänsla, bara stabilt sida/nedåt. (Om man bortser från dagliga 5% vol svängningarna i ledande europeiska index såklart :)
Antar att vi måste få en rejäl panikspik ner innan vi kan få en ordentlig rekyl upp? Eller? Rekylen kommer såklart, men NÄÄÄÄÄÄR??
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