tisdag 7 december 2010

Hedgeye baissar (men inte jag)

Hedgeye är fortsatt skeptiska till husmarknaden och börsen. Skeptiska är förresten fel ord. De är riktigt negativa:
The supply and demand imbalances were at the root of our housing call this past summer and nothing has changed on that front. The market is more dislocated today than it was when we made the call in the summer. At the time we made our call in June there were 3.99 million homes on the market for sale and existing home sales were running at a rate of 5.37 million, which equated to 8.9 months of supply. Today, there are 3.86 million home on the market for sale (October), while existing home sales are running at a rate of 4.43 million, which equates to 10.5 months of supply. Existing home inventory peaked at 12.5 months of supply in July. Based on our conclusion that home prices take one year to fully respond to supply and demand imbalances, we would expect to see July 2011 be the low watermark for year-over-year price trends in housing. The more important takeaway, however, is that between now and July 2011 the trends should continue to get worse. While it is possible that the market's "bad news is good news" mentality will persist and ongoing weakening in home prices will simply translate into greater and greater expectations for further quantitative easing, we continue to think that bad news is simply bad.
Jag håller i sak med dem angående husmarknaden och Supply/Demand-balansen, men tror ändå att det inte kommer dra ned BNP eller vinstprognoserna - inte mer än att aktier fortfarande är bästa investeringsalternativet. Dessutom - om hussituationen förvärras till juli 2011, dvs bottnar 2011, så ska väl börsen bottna ungefär nu...

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