Deutsche Banks Joe LaVorgna skriver:
Data from the durable goods report are used in estimating capital spending (capex), which appears to have made a noticeable recovery. Following a 21.2% peak to trough decline in capex that spanned Q4 2007 to Q2 2009, capex grew 1.5% at an annualized rate in Q3 and then 13.3% at an annualized rate in Q4. Importantly, data on the production of computers and electrical equipment, another series used by the Commerce Department to estimate capex, increased at a 19% annualized rate in January so the recovery appears to be continuing at a rapid pace. We expect further confirmation of these trends in today’s durables report where we project 1.5% gains in both the headline and ex transportation components. Consequently, we are confident the recovery already seen in capex and which appears to be continuing into Q1 has some legs to it, and ultimately this should bode well for hiring because it would be unprecedented to have strong capex and negligible hiring.
Idag 14.30 får vi veta hur det blev. Med lite tur glömmer man den märkliga consumer confidence-siffran då.
torsdag 25 februari 2010
Varför en del är arbetslösa
Här är några utdrag ur en inte helt politiskt korrekt Ecconomistartikel om arbetslöshet. Skrämmande och roligt. Undrar vad Mona och Ohly skulle säga om Reinfeldt citerade artikeln...
It tried to deal with the standard complaint that immigrants "take all our jobs"; one that is completely contradicted by the other complaint that they come to Britain to live off benefits.
So the programme got four employers in Wisbech (a Fenland town close to where I grew up) to take on British unemployed workers instead of the eastern Europeans on whom they normally relied. One genial owner of an Indian restaurant offered four jobs for waiters and traineee cooks; three of the four failed to turn up on the first day. The other lad was baffled by "all these Indian names" for food although Indian meals are nowadays as British as roast beef; he lasted for about two hours, including one walk-out. At a potato factory, another lad rang up on the first day to say he'd been out late and was now too ill to come in.
It tried to deal with the standard complaint that immigrants "take all our jobs"; one that is completely contradicted by the other complaint that they come to Britain to live off benefits.
So the programme got four employers in Wisbech (a Fenland town close to where I grew up) to take on British unemployed workers instead of the eastern Europeans on whom they normally relied. One genial owner of an Indian restaurant offered four jobs for waiters and traineee cooks; three of the four failed to turn up on the first day. The other lad was baffled by "all these Indian names" for food although Indian meals are nowadays as British as roast beef; he lasted for about two hours, including one walk-out. At a potato factory, another lad rang up on the first day to say he'd been out late and was now too ill to come in.
tisdag 23 februari 2010
CLSA Greed&Fear tror att Grekland bara är början...
GREED & FEAR
I torsdagens Greed & Fear skriver Christopher Wood på CLSA följande:
”It is clear that the real crisis over Greece […] is in the future” (dvs vi har inte sett det värsta än, bara en paus)
“remains skeptical whether Germany will really opt for a bailout” (och om inte kommer de deflationinistiska konsekvenserna chocka marknaden)
”represent great buying opportunity in Asia” (eftersom Europa och USA kommer fortsätta stimulera ekonomin med bl.a. låga räntor och överskottslikviditeten kommer spilla över till Asien)
”a slowdown in [Chinese] property sales is positive” (eftersom den ger politikerna skäl att sluta med “sector-based tightening”. CLSA påpekar också att den tightening som redan skett och lite till nu är välkänd och diskonterad och utgör inget hot mot aktiepriser)
Wood avslutar med grafer över USAs förlorade årtionde (låg tillväxt, fallande sysselsättning över 10 år! jämfört med tex 20-40% totalt per övriga efterkrigsdecennier), en varning om att innevarande decennium kan bli minst lika dåligt som det senaste, samt en ödesmättad kommentar om att fokus på Greklands och Europas problem förr eller senare flyttas till USA.
"Köp guld och asiatiska aktier (bl.a. banker)", rekommenderar CLSA.
Ett återkommande tema hos de analytiker och strateger jag respekterar mest är just köp asien och asiatiska banker – inte minst i Kina. Jag håller med dem, men jag tycker dessutom att det finns många billiga aktier i Europa, trots eventuella problem för Grekland och Europa i stort.
GREKLAND & TEKNISKA HINDER
Marknaden brottas med bl.a. frågan om hur allvarlig Greklandskrisen är och samtidigt med en massa tekniska indikatorer (fibonacci, glidande medelvärden, gamla stöd och motstånd). Få verkar hysa någon riktig övertygelse på någonting, var sig det gäller momentum, makro, vinstprognoser, värdering, räntor eller vad det än kan vara. Ur det perspektivet är jag lit motvals just nu. Jag är ju övertygad om att aktier är billiga, räntor kommer vara låga, vinstutvecklingen god och att världen är som en spänd fjäder efter ett förlorat årtionde och med massor av potential i friställd arbetskraft och teknologisk utveckling.
Vad gäller Europa gör problemen bara att valutan blir svagare och räntan hålls låg längre, vilket är bra för exportbolag... ECB lär knappast höja räntan för att försvara valutan innan dollarparitet så länge arbetslösheten är 10 procent och tillväxten knapp.
CONTRARIAN?
Jag gillar verkligen inte uttrycket contrarian eller folks försök att vara just det. Tidningsrubriker som anspelar på Buffetts råd om Greed/Fear och att vara det ena när alla är det andra gör mig illamående. Jag menar, hur ska man veta vad ”alla andra” är och tänker. Och hur ska man ens veta vad man själv är och tänker om man försöker vara tvärtemot antingen sig själv eller alla andra eller båda på en gång? Jag är det jag är och sen observerar jag världen.
Just nu är jag haussad och jag upplever att många runtomkring mig inte är det. De förefaller skeptiska, håglösa, negativa eller allt på en gång, men få om någon är övertygat bullish. Det KAN vara ett bra tecken. Det KAN också vara ett dåligt. Det spelar mindre roll. Jag är det jag är.
I torsdagens Greed & Fear skriver Christopher Wood på CLSA följande:
”It is clear that the real crisis over Greece […] is in the future” (dvs vi har inte sett det värsta än, bara en paus)
“remains skeptical whether Germany will really opt for a bailout” (och om inte kommer de deflationinistiska konsekvenserna chocka marknaden)
”represent great buying opportunity in Asia” (eftersom Europa och USA kommer fortsätta stimulera ekonomin med bl.a. låga räntor och överskottslikviditeten kommer spilla över till Asien)
”a slowdown in [Chinese] property sales is positive” (eftersom den ger politikerna skäl att sluta med “sector-based tightening”. CLSA påpekar också att den tightening som redan skett och lite till nu är välkänd och diskonterad och utgör inget hot mot aktiepriser)
Wood avslutar med grafer över USAs förlorade årtionde (låg tillväxt, fallande sysselsättning över 10 år! jämfört med tex 20-40% totalt per övriga efterkrigsdecennier), en varning om att innevarande decennium kan bli minst lika dåligt som det senaste, samt en ödesmättad kommentar om att fokus på Greklands och Europas problem förr eller senare flyttas till USA.
"Köp guld och asiatiska aktier (bl.a. banker)", rekommenderar CLSA.
Ett återkommande tema hos de analytiker och strateger jag respekterar mest är just köp asien och asiatiska banker – inte minst i Kina. Jag håller med dem, men jag tycker dessutom att det finns många billiga aktier i Europa, trots eventuella problem för Grekland och Europa i stort.
GREKLAND & TEKNISKA HINDER
Marknaden brottas med bl.a. frågan om hur allvarlig Greklandskrisen är och samtidigt med en massa tekniska indikatorer (fibonacci, glidande medelvärden, gamla stöd och motstånd). Få verkar hysa någon riktig övertygelse på någonting, var sig det gäller momentum, makro, vinstprognoser, värdering, räntor eller vad det än kan vara. Ur det perspektivet är jag lit motvals just nu. Jag är ju övertygad om att aktier är billiga, räntor kommer vara låga, vinstutvecklingen god och att världen är som en spänd fjäder efter ett förlorat årtionde och med massor av potential i friställd arbetskraft och teknologisk utveckling.
Vad gäller Europa gör problemen bara att valutan blir svagare och räntan hålls låg längre, vilket är bra för exportbolag... ECB lär knappast höja räntan för att försvara valutan innan dollarparitet så länge arbetslösheten är 10 procent och tillväxten knapp.
CONTRARIAN?
Jag gillar verkligen inte uttrycket contrarian eller folks försök att vara just det. Tidningsrubriker som anspelar på Buffetts råd om Greed/Fear och att vara det ena när alla är det andra gör mig illamående. Jag menar, hur ska man veta vad ”alla andra” är och tänker. Och hur ska man ens veta vad man själv är och tänker om man försöker vara tvärtemot antingen sig själv eller alla andra eller båda på en gång? Jag är det jag är och sen observerar jag världen.
Just nu är jag haussad och jag upplever att många runtomkring mig inte är det. De förefaller skeptiska, håglösa, negativa eller allt på en gång, men få om någon är övertygat bullish. Det KAN vara ett bra tecken. Det KAN också vara ett dåligt. Det spelar mindre roll. Jag är det jag är.
fredag 19 februari 2010
The economist 13 feb
Klassiskt Mandelbrotcitat i The Economist: "If financial markets followed the normal bell-shaped distribution curve, in which meltdowns are very rare, the stockmarket crash of 1987, the interest-rate turmoil of 1992 and the 2008 crash would each be expected only once in the lifetime of the universe"
Alltså, dessa tre händelser som inträffat inom loppet av 20 år skulle normalt (normalfördelningsantagandet) ha tagit 40 miljarder år. Det är något att tänka på när man uttalar sig tvärsäkert om marknadens beteende, ligger nettolång eller nettokort utan hedgar.
Alltså, dessa tre händelser som inträffat inom loppet av 20 år skulle normalt (normalfördelningsantagandet) ha tagit 40 miljarder år. Det är något att tänka på när man uttalar sig tvärsäkert om marknadens beteende, ligger nettolång eller nettokort utan hedgar.
Diskontot påverkar inte min analys
...inte mer än att jag kan konstatera att i alla fall någon blir stressad inför exitprocessen. Jag är dock fortsatt lång och positiv. Det här blåser nog över ganska fort. I grund och botten är det ju förstås bra att Fed vill normalisera sin politik.
Från Citibank idag:
As noted on headlines, the Fed is being explicit in suggesting this does not signal a quicker start to outright tightening.
...
The Fed's action should serve to remind markets that following recent extraordinary steps, the removal of accommodation is a multi-stage process. One that is already ongoing with the unwinding of liquidity and credit provision, with today's action laying the groundwork for further moves in the future.
Strategas säger:
The Fed raised the discount rate by +25 bp to 0.75 percent this afternoon. The fact that this was done 1) not at a scheduled meeting and 2) after the close are likely indications that the Fed does not want this interpreted as a change in the overall policy outlook. Nonetheless, the knee-jerk market reaction - given the historical correlation between the fed funds rate and the discount rate - will likely put the Fed exit strategy back in the spotlight.
Morgan Stanley skriver... lite ödesmättat:
...In other words, because of the big starting point [of] deficits and because of structural issues, it seems unlikely that public deficits can be allowed to heal at the 'natural' pace. Faster action will be required - or, market-imposed.
...
Faster-than-usual fiscal tightening increases the risk of policy-induced double-dip: It's noteworthy that the recoveries in Japan in the 1990s and the US in the 1930s were derailed by premature policy tightening.
Så här kommenterar SHB feds höjning av diskontot (obs det här är från s.k. "sales", dvs inte SHBs officiella analys):
Räntehöjning på "fulpengar" (i.e. nödlån...) i USA d.v.s. +25 bp till 0,75% efter stängning igår! Detta har ingen direkt påverkan på marknadena utan bara rent psykologiskt på sentimentet! Fed's exit strategi har alltså startat men detta är ett bevis på att konjunkturen skjuter fart och en signal till att bankerna inte behöver pengar av Fed längre!!! Personligen så fattar jag ingenting faktiskt. Bernanke flaggade ju för detta för en vecka sedan! Är det bara jag som är oförstående även om jag vet att ingenting någonsin är 100% diskat (uppenbarligen...)!? Jag tycker det är en "gratis-macka" att köpa aktier under de första höjningarna av Fed då börsen brukar gå bra då. Varför inte nu??????
Från Citibank idag:
As noted on headlines, the Fed is being explicit in suggesting this does not signal a quicker start to outright tightening.
...
The Fed's action should serve to remind markets that following recent extraordinary steps, the removal of accommodation is a multi-stage process. One that is already ongoing with the unwinding of liquidity and credit provision, with today's action laying the groundwork for further moves in the future.
Strategas säger:
The Fed raised the discount rate by +25 bp to 0.75 percent this afternoon. The fact that this was done 1) not at a scheduled meeting and 2) after the close are likely indications that the Fed does not want this interpreted as a change in the overall policy outlook. Nonetheless, the knee-jerk market reaction - given the historical correlation between the fed funds rate and the discount rate - will likely put the Fed exit strategy back in the spotlight.
Morgan Stanley skriver... lite ödesmättat:
...In other words, because of the big starting point [of] deficits and because of structural issues, it seems unlikely that public deficits can be allowed to heal at the 'natural' pace. Faster action will be required - or, market-imposed.
...
Faster-than-usual fiscal tightening increases the risk of policy-induced double-dip: It's noteworthy that the recoveries in Japan in the 1990s and the US in the 1930s were derailed by premature policy tightening.
Så här kommenterar SHB feds höjning av diskontot (obs det här är från s.k. "sales", dvs inte SHBs officiella analys):
Räntehöjning på "fulpengar" (i.e. nödlån...) i USA d.v.s. +25 bp till 0,75% efter stängning igår! Detta har ingen direkt påverkan på marknadena utan bara rent psykologiskt på sentimentet! Fed's exit strategi har alltså startat men detta är ett bevis på att konjunkturen skjuter fart och en signal till att bankerna inte behöver pengar av Fed längre!!! Personligen så fattar jag ingenting faktiskt. Bernanke flaggade ju för detta för en vecka sedan! Är det bara jag som är oförstående även om jag vet att ingenting någonsin är 100% diskat (uppenbarligen...)!? Jag tycker det är en "gratis-macka" att köpa aktier under de första höjningarna av Fed då börsen brukar gå bra då. Varför inte nu??????
onsdag 17 februari 2010
Väldigt många rekommendationer från Credit Suisse
Såna här rapporter roar jag mig med dagligen. Det finns oftast mycket lite eller inget informationsvärde i dem, men de är ändå lite underhållande. I just den här rapporten från Credit Suisse lyfter analytikerna fram konsumentaktier i Emerging Markets som bra aktieinvesteringar. Jag håller med dem, men de radar verkligen upp alla aktier de kan komma på. Budskapet man kan ta med sig ärdock att 1. Köpa i Asien, 2. Köpa konsumentaktier i bred bemärkelse, t.ex. bank, underhållning och kommunikation.
The structural rebalancing of consumption between developed and
developing markets is a core element of Credit Suisse’s global equity
strategy. In order to gauge which sectors are best placed to benefit from
growth in emerging market consumption, we look at the long-term history
from the US, France and Japan to see how their consumer expenditure
patterns changed as income levels improved. Specifically, we consider the
growth in consumer expenditure by sector as GDP rose from US$7,000 to
US$9,000 per capita (which is in line with current and 2014E IMF forecast
levels of GDP per capita for GEM in aggregate).
Given the variety in GDP per capita and demographic trends within and
between the MSCI emerging markets, our recommended exposures include:
(1) consumer staples and utilities in the lower-income markets (India,
Indonesia, Egypt); (2) the healthcare sector in markets with significant
projected growth in per capita GDP and the over-65s population (India,
China, Latin America); and (3) consumer durables in fast-growing markets
with rising working-age populations (China, India, Thailand and Mexico).
■ The essential consumer items in the relatively low-income economies where growth is
forecast (on IMF estimates) to be relatively strong (India, Indonesia, Egypt as well as
many of the African markets). China fits the profile to some extent. We like Indofood
Sukses Makmur, Colgate India and China Yurun. Saudi-listed Almarai offers
exposure to strong growth in the low-income groups in its home market as well as
growth in Egyptian consumption via its recent acquisition of Beyti. Food retailer
Shoprite offers exposure to growth in the low- and middle-income consumers in South
Africa (87% of total sales 2009E) as well as other African markets (13% of sales).
■ It is a similar story for household utilities and fuels. We like Perusahaan Gas Negara,
and China Gas Holdings. We rate NTPC in India Neutral.
■ For exposure to housing, the analysis points towards middle-income emerging
markets with high relative growth in the working-age population and real GDP (China,
Peru, Mexico, Chile and Russia). We recommend exposure to Empresas ICA,
Gafisa, Sistema-Hals, China Vanke and Evergrande Real Estate Group. In India,
we would recommend Unitech.
■ Financial services in markets that offer the combination of rising GDP per capita,
preferably above a starting point of US$5,000, where financial penetration is still low,
such as China, Thailand and Mexico. Our preferred exposure would be via Bangkok
Bank, Siam Commercial Bank, China Life Insurance Co and China Construction
Bank. Prospects for this sector also look promising in India. We like HDFC Bank,
Bank of Baroda and Max India.
■ Interestingly, personal consumption of education expenditure was very strong in Japan
in the early 1960s despite a significant decline in the school-age population. The
rationale is simply that parents prioritise their children as their own income improves.
Hence, despite a declining school-age population for GEM in aggregate, we believe
the outlook for education is relatively strong, particularly since it is coming off a low
base relative to developed markets in an increasingly global market place. Within
GEM, it is the BRIC markets that look best placed to deliver the fastest rates of growth
in education. We like Everonn Education, Anhanguera Educacional, Estacio
Participacoes and Raffles Education.
■ Communication-related stocks in low- and middle-income emerging markets India,
Indonesia, Egypt and China. We recommend Excelcomindo Pratama, Indosat,
China Mobile and China Unicom. We rate Mobinil and Bharti Airtel as Neutral.
■ There is no long-term historical profile for the technology sector since it is relatively
new, but prevailing consumption trends across markets with a range of GDP per
capita levels suggest a sweet spot for this sector in the middle-income emerging
economies with strong relative growth and rising working-age populations. China,
Thailand, India, Peru and Mexico fit the profile. We recommend exposure through the
low-cost PC producers that supply these markets, for example Hon Hai, Asustek
Computer and Acer. Consumer electronics plays fit the same profile: We like Suning
Appliance Co in China and also highlight M.Video in Russia.
■ Healthcare plays in Malaysia, Thailand, India, China and Latin America (ex Argentina
and Venezuela). The combination of strong GDP growth and a significant increase in the over-65-years population suggests these are attractive markets for the healthcare
sector. Our recommendations include Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Piramal
Healthcare, Lupin, Dr.Reddy’s, Diagnosticos da America, OdontoPrev and China
Medical Technologies.
■ Transport stocks in markets with rising working-age populations and strong growth in
GDP per capita, preferably where measures of transport penetration are still low
(China, India, Mexico, Chile, Russia and Turkey). We recommend Tata Motors,
Maruti Suzuki, Dongfeng Motors Group, Geely Automobile Holdings, BYD and
Tofas.
■ The analysis suggests that exposure to the Recreation sector is preferable in the
higher-income markets such as Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. We recommend Berjaya
Sports Toto, Tanjong and Kangwon Land
The structural rebalancing of consumption between developed and
developing markets is a core element of Credit Suisse’s global equity
strategy. In order to gauge which sectors are best placed to benefit from
growth in emerging market consumption, we look at the long-term history
from the US, France and Japan to see how their consumer expenditure
patterns changed as income levels improved. Specifically, we consider the
growth in consumer expenditure by sector as GDP rose from US$7,000 to
US$9,000 per capita (which is in line with current and 2014E IMF forecast
levels of GDP per capita for GEM in aggregate).
Given the variety in GDP per capita and demographic trends within and
between the MSCI emerging markets, our recommended exposures include:
(1) consumer staples and utilities in the lower-income markets (India,
Indonesia, Egypt); (2) the healthcare sector in markets with significant
projected growth in per capita GDP and the over-65s population (India,
China, Latin America); and (3) consumer durables in fast-growing markets
with rising working-age populations (China, India, Thailand and Mexico).
■ The essential consumer items in the relatively low-income economies where growth is
forecast (on IMF estimates) to be relatively strong (India, Indonesia, Egypt as well as
many of the African markets). China fits the profile to some extent. We like Indofood
Sukses Makmur, Colgate India and China Yurun. Saudi-listed Almarai offers
exposure to strong growth in the low-income groups in its home market as well as
growth in Egyptian consumption via its recent acquisition of Beyti. Food retailer
Shoprite offers exposure to growth in the low- and middle-income consumers in South
Africa (87% of total sales 2009E) as well as other African markets (13% of sales).
■ It is a similar story for household utilities and fuels. We like Perusahaan Gas Negara,
and China Gas Holdings. We rate NTPC in India Neutral.
■ For exposure to housing, the analysis points towards middle-income emerging
markets with high relative growth in the working-age population and real GDP (China,
Peru, Mexico, Chile and Russia). We recommend exposure to Empresas ICA,
Gafisa, Sistema-Hals, China Vanke and Evergrande Real Estate Group. In India,
we would recommend Unitech.
■ Financial services in markets that offer the combination of rising GDP per capita,
preferably above a starting point of US$5,000, where financial penetration is still low,
such as China, Thailand and Mexico. Our preferred exposure would be via Bangkok
Bank, Siam Commercial Bank, China Life Insurance Co and China Construction
Bank. Prospects for this sector also look promising in India. We like HDFC Bank,
Bank of Baroda and Max India.
■ Interestingly, personal consumption of education expenditure was very strong in Japan
in the early 1960s despite a significant decline in the school-age population. The
rationale is simply that parents prioritise their children as their own income improves.
Hence, despite a declining school-age population for GEM in aggregate, we believe
the outlook for education is relatively strong, particularly since it is coming off a low
base relative to developed markets in an increasingly global market place. Within
GEM, it is the BRIC markets that look best placed to deliver the fastest rates of growth
in education. We like Everonn Education, Anhanguera Educacional, Estacio
Participacoes and Raffles Education.
■ Communication-related stocks in low- and middle-income emerging markets India,
Indonesia, Egypt and China. We recommend Excelcomindo Pratama, Indosat,
China Mobile and China Unicom. We rate Mobinil and Bharti Airtel as Neutral.
■ There is no long-term historical profile for the technology sector since it is relatively
new, but prevailing consumption trends across markets with a range of GDP per
capita levels suggest a sweet spot for this sector in the middle-income emerging
economies with strong relative growth and rising working-age populations. China,
Thailand, India, Peru and Mexico fit the profile. We recommend exposure through the
low-cost PC producers that supply these markets, for example Hon Hai, Asustek
Computer and Acer. Consumer electronics plays fit the same profile: We like Suning
Appliance Co in China and also highlight M.Video in Russia.
■ Healthcare plays in Malaysia, Thailand, India, China and Latin America (ex Argentina
and Venezuela). The combination of strong GDP growth and a significant increase in the over-65-years population suggests these are attractive markets for the healthcare
sector. Our recommendations include Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Piramal
Healthcare, Lupin, Dr.Reddy’s, Diagnosticos da America, OdontoPrev and China
Medical Technologies.
■ Transport stocks in markets with rising working-age populations and strong growth in
GDP per capita, preferably where measures of transport penetration are still low
(China, India, Mexico, Chile, Russia and Turkey). We recommend Tata Motors,
Maruti Suzuki, Dongfeng Motors Group, Geely Automobile Holdings, BYD and
Tofas.
■ The analysis suggests that exposure to the Recreation sector is preferable in the
higher-income markets such as Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. We recommend Berjaya
Sports Toto, Tanjong and Kangwon Land
Goldman om att förvaltare inte gillar banker
För de som är intresserade av mäklarsidans synpunkter...
Goldman kommenterade i morse att investerare hatar banker... dvs, i mina ögon betyder det att det kan vara ett bättre köpläge än annars, förutsatt att man, vilket jag gör, tycker att vinstprognoserna är ok och värderingen ganska låg.
Largest monthly fall in PM sentiment towards the European banks sector in at least 9 years – now the most hated sector in Europe – most negative reading since March 2009. Financial Times: According to the latest survey conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the popularity rating of European banks dropped from 16 per cent in January to minus 53 per cent in February, the biggest monthly fall in the survey's nine-year history. It is the most negative investors have been on banks since the nadir of the financial crisis in March 2009 and the largest conviction underweight position for any sector seen by Merrill in seven months. A total of 165 fund managers managing a combined $355bn took part in the Europe regional survey.
Morgan Stanleys strateg Minack skrev i natt lite baissigt om skulder och hur jobbigt det är att bli av med dem:
Finally, deleveraging now is likely to be more difficult than usual. First, the adjustment is more difficult because it involves more countries. Prior debt crises typically involved regions that were, in a global macro context, relatively small. Even the Asian crisis of 1997-98 did not have a material impact on the developed economies. This time, however, high debt exists in economies that account for a very large proportion of global output. Increasing national saving is clearly easier to achieve in a buoyant global environment. Asia's adjustment, for example, was assisted by strength in developed economies. Now, however, a synchronized move to reduced leverage would have second round effects through the developed world, threatening a double-dip recession in developed economies.
The second difficulty is that the starting point is very elevated leverage. Prior successful deleveraging - that is, deleveraging that avoided default or serious economic distress - started from lower leverage levels. Of the episodes McKinsey identified, the highest starting point leverage for 'growing out of debt' was 180% of GDP. This is roughly half the level of leverage in many developed economies. Of episodes that required 'belt tightening' - but did not also include financial crisis - the highest leverage starting point was 242% of GDP. In other words, there is no historical precedent for an economy with debt to GDP of over 250% of GDP - many developed economies now have debt of around 350% of GDP - to avoid financial crisis (or inflation) as they de-lever.
Han hade dock en liten silver lining trots allt och menade att tillväxten inte behöver bli sämre för det, efter ett första skift nedåt:
Second, an extended period of de-leveraging does not require an extended period of sub-trend growth. This is for two reasons. First, the growth in debt is not linked to economic growth: it's the change in the rate of debt growth that affects economic growth. The stock of debt is like the stock of inventories: the change in inventories (or debt) affects the level of GDP; and it's the change in the change that affects the growth in GDP. Put another way, once spending is below income (saving is positive), leverage can be reduced even if spending growth is in line with income growth.
Goldman kommenterade i morse att investerare hatar banker... dvs, i mina ögon betyder det att det kan vara ett bättre köpläge än annars, förutsatt att man, vilket jag gör, tycker att vinstprognoserna är ok och värderingen ganska låg.
Largest monthly fall in PM sentiment towards the European banks sector in at least 9 years – now the most hated sector in Europe – most negative reading since March 2009. Financial Times: According to the latest survey conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the popularity rating of European banks dropped from 16 per cent in January to minus 53 per cent in February, the biggest monthly fall in the survey's nine-year history. It is the most negative investors have been on banks since the nadir of the financial crisis in March 2009 and the largest conviction underweight position for any sector seen by Merrill in seven months. A total of 165 fund managers managing a combined $355bn took part in the Europe regional survey.
Morgan Stanleys strateg Minack skrev i natt lite baissigt om skulder och hur jobbigt det är att bli av med dem:
Finally, deleveraging now is likely to be more difficult than usual. First, the adjustment is more difficult because it involves more countries. Prior debt crises typically involved regions that were, in a global macro context, relatively small. Even the Asian crisis of 1997-98 did not have a material impact on the developed economies. This time, however, high debt exists in economies that account for a very large proportion of global output. Increasing national saving is clearly easier to achieve in a buoyant global environment. Asia's adjustment, for example, was assisted by strength in developed economies. Now, however, a synchronized move to reduced leverage would have second round effects through the developed world, threatening a double-dip recession in developed economies.
The second difficulty is that the starting point is very elevated leverage. Prior successful deleveraging - that is, deleveraging that avoided default or serious economic distress - started from lower leverage levels. Of the episodes McKinsey identified, the highest starting point leverage for 'growing out of debt' was 180% of GDP. This is roughly half the level of leverage in many developed economies. Of episodes that required 'belt tightening' - but did not also include financial crisis - the highest leverage starting point was 242% of GDP. In other words, there is no historical precedent for an economy with debt to GDP of over 250% of GDP - many developed economies now have debt of around 350% of GDP - to avoid financial crisis (or inflation) as they de-lever.
Han hade dock en liten silver lining trots allt och menade att tillväxten inte behöver bli sämre för det, efter ett första skift nedåt:
Second, an extended period of de-leveraging does not require an extended period of sub-trend growth. This is for two reasons. First, the growth in debt is not linked to economic growth: it's the change in the rate of debt growth that affects economic growth. The stock of debt is like the stock of inventories: the change in inventories (or debt) affects the level of GDP; and it's the change in the change that affects the growth in GDP. Put another way, once spending is below income (saving is positive), leverage can be reduced even if spending growth is in line with income growth.
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