Buttonwood skriver idag:
My view tends to be that you look at long-term measures (like the cyclically-adjusted ratio or the dividend yield) and figure out that when valuations are high, future returns are likely to be low. You don't know when the bad news will come, or in what form - pyramids or profits - but you figure something will happen to disturb the rosy consensus.
Jag tänker i samma banor när det gäller marknadsrörelser (i ovan exempel givet att marknaden är dyr, hög och man väntar på en korrektion
måndag 31 januari 2011
Egypten?
Är det verkligen Egypten och Tunisien som ligger bakom korrektionen? Många vill få det till det – att oron för oljebrist katalyserar en korrektion som i vilket fall som helst redan behövdes.
Andra orosmoment inkluderar stagflationen i UK (negativ BNP-tillväxt i Q4 och högre inflation än centralbankens mål) och även BNP i USA där oljeprisbaserat statistiktrolleri och en icke uthållig konsumtionsboost lyfte BNP till 3,2% tillväxt i årstakt i Q4.
Två kommentarer på BNP från Mauldin:
Oil in the 4th quarter rose from roughly $81 to $89, or about 10%. On an annualized basis, this is 40%. Inventory investment is equal to the change in book value of the inventories, minus what is known as the IVA, or inventory valuation adjustment, which is used to correct for prices going up or down. Because the value of oil rose and thus cost more to acquire, the accounting requires that you reduce the value of the current inventories. Thus "real" imports fell at a 13% annual rate. Why? Because the deflator rose by 19%, largely because of the rise in the price of oil....
If oil were to go back down this quarter by the same amount, that "growth" could be wiped out [det är således synd att säga att det var äkta tillväxt som är värd något]. There is no conspiracy here. It is just a statistical necessity, like hedonic measurements, and it is all very clear in the fine print; but when there are wide swings in oil prices over a quarter, and because our imports of oil are so large, you can get these odd accounting factoids. Which the gunslingers on TV (and elsewhere) miss in their urge to be the first to get out a bullish statement!
How much did it change things? Lacy thinks by anywhere from 0.5% to 1%.
Konsumtionen
The really surprising number you saw the talking heads on TV mention was the growth of consumer spending, at 4.4%. Is the US consumer back? After all, real final sales rose by 7.1%, a number not seen since 1984 and Ronald Reagan. But real income rose a paltry 1.7%. Where did the money that was spent come from? Savings dropped a rather large 0.5% for the quarter. That was part of it. And I can't find the link, but there was an unusual drawdown of money market and investment accounts last quarter, somewhere around 1.5%, if I remember correctly. (David Walker remembered that article as well.) That would just about cover it. But that is not a good thing and is certainly not sustainable.Med andra ord: Hur kan man konsumera om man inte har inkomsten för det? Det skulle kunna vara en tjuvstart givet att konsumenterna vet att inkomsten snart blir bättre, men om den inte blir det måste de snarare minska konsumtionen desto mer framöver.
En annan kommentar på tillväxten I USA från Rosenberg:
· The funds rate moved down from 4.5% to zero.
· The Fed's balance sheet expanded by more than 1.5 trillion dollars.
· The printing of M2 money supply of around 1 trillion dollars (the illusion of prosperity).
· Expansion of federal government debt of 4.8 trillion dollars.
"All this heavy lifting just to take the economy back to where it was in the fourth quarter of 2007. [för att inte tala om 7 miljoner förlorade jobb på de tre åren som gått]
En korrektion har legat i korten ett bra tag och vad som helst kan knuffa börsen över kanten. Blev det Egypten den här gången, eller studsar vi upp igen direkt? Det är omöjligt att säga, men jag ligger beredd på en fortsatt korrektion i alla fall. Jag ligger således kvar minimalt kort och med lite säljoptioner som extra skydd på nedsidan
onsdag 26 januari 2011
Zerohedge och Marc Faber
Om du inte läser Zerohedge kanke det här kan få dig att börja. Citatet från Marc Faber från idag:
Earlier, Marc Faber appeared on Bloomberg TV, in what may go down in history as his most scandalous interview ever. When asked, in advance of the SOTU address, what he thinks of the president, Faber, who appears to have had enough with all the bullshit, propaganda, and lies, replies:
"I think he's done a horrible job and I think that will continue, I think he is a dishonest person, and nothing has changed... Some politicians are more honest than others. I don't think that I have a very high regard for politicians, I have a high regard for businessmen and for people who work, and not for people who abuse the system continuously.
And in comparison to other politicians, I think he came in on a platform as a president that would want to change the government in Washington, and actually he's made it worse... We foreigners, we just laugh at someone like Mr. Obama. I was very critical of Mr. Bush, but at least he had one line and he stuck to that line, and at least he set out to do a thing and he was relatively straight on the thing that he did. He may have been wrong, but at least he didn't change his mind continuously, and didn't prostitute himself."
If nothing else, how many other people do you know who will compare, in front of a live Bloomberg audience, the president of the formerly greatest country in the world to a whore?
Earlier, Marc Faber appeared on Bloomberg TV, in what may go down in history as his most scandalous interview ever. When asked, in advance of the SOTU address, what he thinks of the president, Faber, who appears to have had enough with all the bullshit, propaganda, and lies, replies:
"I think he's done a horrible job and I think that will continue, I think he is a dishonest person, and nothing has changed... Some politicians are more honest than others. I don't think that I have a very high regard for politicians, I have a high regard for businessmen and for people who work, and not for people who abuse the system continuously.
And in comparison to other politicians, I think he came in on a platform as a president that would want to change the government in Washington, and actually he's made it worse... We foreigners, we just laugh at someone like Mr. Obama. I was very critical of Mr. Bush, but at least he had one line and he stuck to that line, and at least he set out to do a thing and he was relatively straight on the thing that he did. He may have been wrong, but at least he didn't change his mind continuously, and didn't prostitute himself."
If nothing else, how many other people do you know who will compare, in front of a live Bloomberg audience, the president of the formerly greatest country in the world to a whore?
Nedgången dröjer tydligen
Marknaden är stark. Marknaden tror på de stora ledarna (Obama t.ex.) och inte minst företagsvinsterna...
...men här är några lätt oroande bilder. Olja, koppar, Kina och Indien har redan fallit
Här är dessutom en bild över vinstprognosutvecklingen i USA (från Morgan Stanleys eminenta Gerard Minack) samt några kommentarer från honom:
Det ser likadant ut i Europa:
The sell-side consensus expects 30% EPS growth for developed-markets MSCI equities between 2010 and 2012. This follows 39% growth in 2010 from 2009. Remember, these are "earnings-before-bad-stuff" numbers: consequently, the base excludes most of the financial-sector write-downs.
MÄRK VÄL: EPS in 2010 was within 4% of the prior all-time high (which was 2006). [2011 är alltså med stor marginal ett nytt all time high för företagvinsterna]
Några kommentarer från Minack:
The first thing to note is that strong growth is forecast even with margins already at, or near, historic highs.
För det andra, V-återhämtningen tappar tempo: 1) slower offshore (non-U.S.) output; 2) fading operating leverage; 3) an end to interest costs falling; and 4) rising commodity pressures.
Consensus EPS forecasts are typically wrong [jaså?! :)]. The average error, on a 12 month horizon, is 7%. The error tends to pro-cyclical. In the recovery, forecasts had been too low 12 months prior (Exhibit 6). This year downgrades are more likely.
Minack säger:
I've said that equities can do well if nothing goes wrong. One thing I think will go wrong - although not immediately - is earnings forecasts.
Jag tror finansieringsoro kommer samverka med sänkta prognoser och tvärtom. Just nu hänger Snurre Sprätt (=ekonomin) i luften efter att ha sprungit ut för ett stup, men inom kort kommer gravitationen (skuldbördan)obönhörligen dra med sig Sprätt nedåt. Många vill rida uppgången just nu, men vändningen nedåt kan komma tidigare än folk anar. Det räcker med antingen landsrelateradeproblem med obligationsemissioner, nedskärningar, demonstrationer o dyl, eller företagsproblem i form av försiktig guidance, nedskärningar, svagare marginaler och liknande. Eller för den delen en tradingskandal eller pyramidspel som gått fel. Jag tror fortfarande på först en liten varningskrasch, följt av en hygglig uppgång, som jag ska försöka vara med på (önsketänkande), och därefter den riktiga nedgången, Stora Björn.
måndag 24 januari 2011
Inspiration från Morgan Stanley
Minack på Morgan Stanley är inne på motsatt spår jämfört med mig. Han tänker sig först en rejäl uppgångsfas och sedan mer riskaversion och en set-back:
Minack, MS, i natt: However, markets remain fast, short-term and, in my view, not pre-emptive. The natural tendency will be for risk assets to rally, unless the risks are front-and-centre. Moreover, I continue to think that the macro newsflow will remain a good guide to DM equity performance.
…Developed Markets’ macro data continue to positively surprise. It has surprised more than Emerging Markets since late October
It’s also worth noting that the macro data are surprising more in Europe than the US (with Japan in-between). Our strategists see greater earnings gains this year in Europe and Japan than in the US. As I see it, the US-led December quarter rally was markets taking out the risk of a US recession in 2011; there is now greater upside in Europe and Japan if nothing goes wrong
I am not bullish for the year. Markets are fast and could price the plausible upside very quickly. More to the point, I do think earning forecasts are too high, and I think cycle risks will become more apparent in the second half. In short, this is a year where we may see the highs for developed equities in the first half, and end up with modest gains on a full-year basis.
John Mauldin (Out of the Box) fortsätter med sitt negativa endgame för USAs underskott. Jag ser fram emot boken ENDGAME (Mauldin) som ska komma i mars i år:
America, they assert, is in a fiscal trap due to the low interest rates we currently enjoy. What if I told you we could cut defense and discretionary spending by 20%, put in a two-year pay freeze on federal employees, and go ahead and let the Bush tax cuts on the “rich” expire. Wouldn’t that go a long way to fixing the deficit? The answer is, sadly, likely to be no.
...
As the table shows, if interest rates go back to their long-term historical average, spending could rise by $800 billion in just 8 years. Even under the more optimistic assumptions of the Congressional Budget Office, it is still $500+ billion. The government debt held by the public would be around 120% of GDP (back of my napkin), or close to what I said last week was completely unsustainable by the Irish. It will be no less so for the US.
...
If the US does not get its act together, we will soon be trying to avoid the windshield of the bond market, which will be coming at us faster than we can swerve to avoid it.
Minack, MS, i natt: However, markets remain fast, short-term and, in my view, not pre-emptive. The natural tendency will be for risk assets to rally, unless the risks are front-and-centre. Moreover, I continue to think that the macro newsflow will remain a good guide to DM equity performance.
…Developed Markets’ macro data continue to positively surprise. It has surprised more than Emerging Markets since late October
It’s also worth noting that the macro data are surprising more in Europe than the US (with Japan in-between). Our strategists see greater earnings gains this year in Europe and Japan than in the US. As I see it, the US-led December quarter rally was markets taking out the risk of a US recession in 2011; there is now greater upside in Europe and Japan if nothing goes wrong
I am not bullish for the year. Markets are fast and could price the plausible upside very quickly. More to the point, I do think earning forecasts are too high, and I think cycle risks will become more apparent in the second half. In short, this is a year where we may see the highs for developed equities in the first half, and end up with modest gains on a full-year basis.
John Mauldin (Out of the Box) fortsätter med sitt negativa endgame för USAs underskott. Jag ser fram emot boken ENDGAME (Mauldin) som ska komma i mars i år:
America, they assert, is in a fiscal trap due to the low interest rates we currently enjoy. What if I told you we could cut defense and discretionary spending by 20%, put in a two-year pay freeze on federal employees, and go ahead and let the Bush tax cuts on the “rich” expire. Wouldn’t that go a long way to fixing the deficit? The answer is, sadly, likely to be no.
...
As the table shows, if interest rates go back to their long-term historical average, spending could rise by $800 billion in just 8 years. Even under the more optimistic assumptions of the Congressional Budget Office, it is still $500+ billion. The government debt held by the public would be around 120% of GDP (back of my napkin), or close to what I said last week was completely unsustainable by the Irish. It will be no less so for the US.
...
If the US does not get its act together, we will soon be trying to avoid the windshield of the bond market, which will be coming at us faster than we can swerve to avoid it.
fredag 21 januari 2011
Dagens Goldman
GS analys av Philly Fed igår: Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey held roughly steady in January, at 19.3 vs 20.8 in December, but the composition of the report was substantially stronger. The new orders and employment indexes each rose 13 points, with the 23.6 new orders reading the best since 2004, and the employment index of 17.6 the best since 2006. The only small negative was a pickup in inventory accumulation.
Som sagt så förväntar jag mig stark statistik. Värre är uppgången i Eurostoxx50 (nu 1% idag) som sakta men säkert maler ned mitt tålamod i väntan på en PIIGS-korrektion som kanske aldrig kommer.
Som sagt så förväntar jag mig stark statistik. Värre är uppgången i Eurostoxx50 (nu 1% idag) som sakta men säkert maler ned mitt tålamod i väntan på en PIIGS-korrektion som kanske aldrig kommer.
Bättre IFO
Tyskarna förnekar sig inte - IFO Business Climate och Expectations kom just in bättre än förra månaden och bättre än väntat. Eurostoxx50 har ryckt till lite uppåt efter det,men ganska marginellt.
Annat att notera är att KOSPI föll 1,74% inatt och att (den iofs värdelösa indikatorn) Baltic Dry har fortsatt nedåt. Nu -53,5% sedan 9 september 2010, -36% sedan 6 dec 2010 och Euron är 5% starkare mot USD sedan 7 januari 2011 (+0,5% idag).
Konstigast av allt är fallet i inflationsförväntningar idag: ned från 2,61% till 2,18%, avseende femårsinflationen med start om fem år (dvs inflationen i snitt för tiden 2016-2020)
Annat att notera är att KOSPI föll 1,74% inatt och att (den iofs värdelösa indikatorn) Baltic Dry har fortsatt nedåt. Nu -53,5% sedan 9 september 2010, -36% sedan 6 dec 2010 och Euron är 5% starkare mot USD sedan 7 januari 2011 (+0,5% idag).
Konstigast av allt är fallet i inflationsförväntningar idag: ned från 2,61% till 2,18%, avseende femårsinflationen med start om fem år (dvs inflationen i snitt för tiden 2016-2020)
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