Vi minns november 2013 som första gången på 3,5 år Caterpillar publicerade negativa tal globalt. Detta exempel på negativ utveckling för den faktiska ekonomin stod i bjärt kontrast med alla enkäter, sentiment, rykten och drömmar om uppgång och ignorerades i hopp om att december skulle bli bättre...
-Nope, CAT retail sales föll 12% i december också.
Among other things, the month of November was memorable because for the first
time, Caterpillar - that bellwether of the old industrial economy in which
"stuff" was actually made, dug out of the ground, erected, or otherwise
processed instead of merely hosted ad impressions - posted declining retail
sales in every region around the globe. This was the first time of uniform
declining retail sales since February 2010. To say that this data conflicts
massively with all the rumors, fairytales and lies about a global recovery, is
an understatement which is why it has not been mentioned anywhere, in hopes the
subsequent month would demonstrate some improvement and perhaps an upward
inflection point. That did not happen. Moments ago CAT released its November
dealer retail sales: for the second time in a row CAT posted
negative retail sales across the world, with total retail sales down a whopping
12%
-zerohedge
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torsdag 19 december 2013
onsdag 10 april 2013
Zerohedge förklarar den starka marknaden
ZHs lista över skäl som lyft den amerikanska marknaden till all time highs på sistone
•Markit US PMI Miss
•ISM Manufacturing Miss
•ISM New York Miss
•Vehicle Sales Miss
•ADP Employment Miss
•ISM Services Miss
•Challenger Job Cuts Miss
•Initial Claims Miss
•Trade Balance Beat
•Non-Farm Payrolls Miss
•Hourly Earnings Miss
•NFIB Small Business Miss
•Wholesale Inventories Miss
•Markit US PMI Miss
•ISM Manufacturing Miss
•ISM New York Miss
•Vehicle Sales Miss
•ADP Employment Miss
•ISM Services Miss
•Challenger Job Cuts Miss
•Initial Claims Miss
•Trade Balance Beat
•Non-Farm Payrolls Miss
•Hourly Earnings Miss
•NFIB Small Business Miss
•Wholesale Inventories Miss
tisdag 23 oktober 2012
Bob Janjuah är tillbaka
För några veckor sedan stoppade BJ på Nomura ut sig då SPX stängde en fredag över 1450. Nu verkar han vara tillbaka och redo att ta risk på nedsidan igen. Från Zerohedge:
Dow Jones down 250, and a new bearish letter from Bob Janjuah? Lucky coincidence? Or conspiracy? You decide. From Bob: "How to play it? The SPX is the obvious pure risk short because of how rich it is against other equity markets. Outright is fine, so are options. Take a look at January 1350 puts for example currently trading at 20. If doing outright we would recommend a stop just above the recent highs at 1475. We also like the USD and Treasuries because the market has seen time and time again US problems do not lead to selling of (safe) US assets and it can and we think will be the same again."
Dow Jones down 250, and a new bearish letter from Bob Janjuah? Lucky coincidence? Or conspiracy? You decide. From Bob: "How to play it? The SPX is the obvious pure risk short because of how rich it is against other equity markets. Outright is fine, so are options. Take a look at January 1350 puts for example currently trading at 20. If doing outright we would recommend a stop just above the recent highs at 1475. We also like the USD and Treasuries because the market has seen time and time again US problems do not lead to selling of (safe) US assets and it can and we think will be the same again."
måndag 3 september 2012
Några självklara ord om penningtryckande
Kort sammanfattning av Philipp Bagus syn på QE:
Att trycka pengar kan inte göra samhället rikare. Det producerar inte fler varor. Det har en fördelningseffekt som gynnar de som får pengarna först och missgynnar de som får pengarna sist. Penninginjektioner i specifika delar av ekonomin leder till produktion av olika varor i fel proportioner. Sålunda innebär inte QE någon lättnad för ekonomin. Tvärtom, QE gör recessionen längre och hårdare.
Money printing cannot make society richer; it does not produce more real goods. It has a redistributive effect in favor of those who receive the new money first and to the detriment of those who receive it last. The money injection in a specific part of the economy distorts production. Thus, QE does not bring ease to the economy. To the contrary, QE makes the recession longer and harsher.
Att trycka pengar kan inte göra samhället rikare. Det producerar inte fler varor. Det har en fördelningseffekt som gynnar de som får pengarna först och missgynnar de som får pengarna sist. Penninginjektioner i specifika delar av ekonomin leder till produktion av olika varor i fel proportioner. Sålunda innebär inte QE någon lättnad för ekonomin. Tvärtom, QE gör recessionen längre och hårdare.
Money printing cannot make society richer; it does not produce more real goods. It has a redistributive effect in favor of those who receive the new money first and to the detriment of those who receive it last. The money injection in a specific part of the economy distorts production. Thus, QE does not bring ease to the economy. To the contrary, QE makes the recession longer and harsher.
torsdag 30 augusti 2012
Nicholas Bucheleres genomgång av effekterna av QE
Genomgången avslutas med följande kommentar. Nicholas spår QE-åtgärder på 3-6 tn USD, men först efter en rejäl marknadskrasch.
Five years into the recent recession, and not only do we lack a clear-cut solution for our growth, but every week it seems there is a new international headwind. Europe may be on the brink of a full continental collapse sparked by their highly integrated failure of a banking system; China’s manufacturing is slowing and it seems that their property bubble is reaching a peak; if/when China falls, then we will see Australia and the rest of Asia fall.
These are not predictions, they are contingent facts, and central bankers know this, so we can expect more of the same in terms of accommodative monetary policy in the near future. The next round of internationally coordinated monetary accommodation in the form bond or direct asset purchases will be the largest number that most international citizens have ever heard in their lives.
We are talking about a number close to 10% of the world GDP (world GDP=$59trillion). Due to the aforementioned diminishing returns to scale of monetary policy, I project the next round of liquidity to be at least $3trillion , and I would not be surprised if we reached $6trillion by the end of it.
The next round will come after international equity markets fall further, there are more bankruptcies, and leading economic indicators deteriorate even more. This is not because the Fed is behind the ball (although it usually is); it is because the costs of further easing currently outweigh the benefits. Remember, the quantitative easing programs are meant to prevent economic ruin, not to inflate asset prices and achieve new highs in asset markets.
Until we reach the brink of disaster, Bernanke will keep his hands in his pockets. Once we do, though, we can be sure that Dr. Ben himself will be greasing up the printing presses.
Nicholas Bucheleres www.NJBDeflator.blogspot.com
Five years into the recent recession, and not only do we lack a clear-cut solution for our growth, but every week it seems there is a new international headwind. Europe may be on the brink of a full continental collapse sparked by their highly integrated failure of a banking system; China’s manufacturing is slowing and it seems that their property bubble is reaching a peak; if/when China falls, then we will see Australia and the rest of Asia fall.
These are not predictions, they are contingent facts, and central bankers know this, so we can expect more of the same in terms of accommodative monetary policy in the near future. The next round of internationally coordinated monetary accommodation in the form bond or direct asset purchases will be the largest number that most international citizens have ever heard in their lives.
We are talking about a number close to 10% of the world GDP (world GDP=$59trillion). Due to the aforementioned diminishing returns to scale of monetary policy, I project the next round of liquidity to be at least $3trillion , and I would not be surprised if we reached $6trillion by the end of it.
The next round will come after international equity markets fall further, there are more bankruptcies, and leading economic indicators deteriorate even more. This is not because the Fed is behind the ball (although it usually is); it is because the costs of further easing currently outweigh the benefits. Remember, the quantitative easing programs are meant to prevent economic ruin, not to inflate asset prices and achieve new highs in asset markets.
Until we reach the brink of disaster, Bernanke will keep his hands in his pockets. Once we do, though, we can be sure that Dr. Ben himself will be greasing up the printing presses.
Nicholas Bucheleres www.NJBDeflator.blogspot.com
måndag 6 augusti 2012
Real BNP: skräp in, skräp ut
Chart of the day från Zerohedge visar sophanteringsstatistik i förhållande till BNP.
ZH kommenterar det hela med [mycket fritt översatt] 'tänk om verkligheten fick sätta aktiekurserna istället för myndigheter': "One wonders just what would happen if at some point reality is once again allowed to peek into and set the "market" prices of assets."
ZH kommenterar det hela med [mycket fritt översatt] 'tänk om verkligheten fick sätta aktiekurserna istället för myndigheter': "One wonders just what would happen if at some point reality is once again allowed to peek into and set the "market" prices of assets."
tisdag 1 februari 2011
Zerohedge om US PMI och sannolik marginalpress i Q1
Det kanske inte är så nyanserat och behöver inte vara rätt (jag håller dock tummarna), men här är Zerohedges kommentar på USAs ISM-siffra:
The January ISM Manufacturing M/M 60.8 vs. Exp. 58.0 compared to the previous print of 58.5. Yet the key metric that everyone is focusing on is the surging Price Paid number, which hit a 2 year high 81.5 (73.5 expectations): the highest since July 31, 2008! The corporate margin collapse is about to cripple Q1 numbers, and at this point it is only a matter of time before even sell-side analysts are forced to aggressively lower their S&P EPS estimates.
The January ISM Manufacturing M/M 60.8 vs. Exp. 58.0 compared to the previous print of 58.5. Yet the key metric that everyone is focusing on is the surging Price Paid number, which hit a 2 year high 81.5 (73.5 expectations): the highest since July 31, 2008! The corporate margin collapse is about to cripple Q1 numbers, and at this point it is only a matter of time before even sell-side analysts are forced to aggressively lower their S&P EPS estimates.
onsdag 26 januari 2011
Zerohedge och Marc Faber
Om du inte läser Zerohedge kanke det här kan få dig att börja. Citatet från Marc Faber från idag:
Earlier, Marc Faber appeared on Bloomberg TV, in what may go down in history as his most scandalous interview ever. When asked, in advance of the SOTU address, what he thinks of the president, Faber, who appears to have had enough with all the bullshit, propaganda, and lies, replies:
"I think he's done a horrible job and I think that will continue, I think he is a dishonest person, and nothing has changed... Some politicians are more honest than others. I don't think that I have a very high regard for politicians, I have a high regard for businessmen and for people who work, and not for people who abuse the system continuously.
And in comparison to other politicians, I think he came in on a platform as a president that would want to change the government in Washington, and actually he's made it worse... We foreigners, we just laugh at someone like Mr. Obama. I was very critical of Mr. Bush, but at least he had one line and he stuck to that line, and at least he set out to do a thing and he was relatively straight on the thing that he did. He may have been wrong, but at least he didn't change his mind continuously, and didn't prostitute himself."
If nothing else, how many other people do you know who will compare, in front of a live Bloomberg audience, the president of the formerly greatest country in the world to a whore?
Earlier, Marc Faber appeared on Bloomberg TV, in what may go down in history as his most scandalous interview ever. When asked, in advance of the SOTU address, what he thinks of the president, Faber, who appears to have had enough with all the bullshit, propaganda, and lies, replies:
"I think he's done a horrible job and I think that will continue, I think he is a dishonest person, and nothing has changed... Some politicians are more honest than others. I don't think that I have a very high regard for politicians, I have a high regard for businessmen and for people who work, and not for people who abuse the system continuously.
And in comparison to other politicians, I think he came in on a platform as a president that would want to change the government in Washington, and actually he's made it worse... We foreigners, we just laugh at someone like Mr. Obama. I was very critical of Mr. Bush, but at least he had one line and he stuck to that line, and at least he set out to do a thing and he was relatively straight on the thing that he did. He may have been wrong, but at least he didn't change his mind continuously, and didn't prostitute himself."
If nothing else, how many other people do you know who will compare, in front of a live Bloomberg audience, the president of the formerly greatest country in the world to a whore?
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